Daily Management Review

What Brits Are Asking Each Other Post Brexit


06/26/2016




What Brits Are Asking Each Other Post Brexit
After the Brexit decision by UK voters, some of the questions that were doing the rounds in the U.K. this weekend were:
 
Can the referendum result somehow be overturned?
 
It is possible but most probably unlikely. The U.K.’s next prime minister is under no legal compulsion to act on the result as the referendum is non-binding. And a new premier could negotiate a new deal with the EU before taking it back for a second vote – at least in theory. But EU’s other leaders have ruled out this option. And most critically, ignoring the views of the 17.4 million people who voted to leave would be extremely difficult.
 
What about this petition calling for a second referendum?
 
A petition on Parliament’s website calling for a second vote has been signed by a record 1.6 million people. However the most that a petition can achieve is a debate among lawmakers as there is no mechanism in the U.K. for the public to trigger a referendum. In case either side wins by less by 60 percent or if turnout is less than 75 percent, then the petition demands that the government annul the plebiscite. But the referendum that has already taken place have been pledged to be recognized by all the country’s leading politicians.
 
Could the EU make the U.K. an offer that prompts a rethink?

This is also quite unlikely as indications are that Berlin, Paris and Brussels want a quick separation. “It’s not an amicable divorce, but it never really was a close love affair anyway,” said EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
 
When will the U.K. formally leave the EU?
 
The UK would not formally have to or leave the EU at least for some time now. The UK needs to put in place a two-year timeline for formal talks after it triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. But that triggering would be done by the next PM who would not take office perhaps fir the next three months. Hence late 2018 at the earliest is the time is the possible time that UK leaves EU formally.
 
Can the EU force the U.K. to trigger Article 50?
 
Triggering article 50 can only be done by the UK. And hence Britain is left with some amount of negotiating power. The advantage switches back to the other 27 countries once the mechanism is triggered. Hence it is critical that the trigger for article 50 be done judiciously.
 
How does the Tory leadership battle work?
 
Since Cameron has said that he wants his successor to be in place by early October, 330 lawmakers will screen the field of candidates and whittle them down to two by July 21, when the House of Commons goes into recess for the summer assuming that the Conservative Party grandees decide to use the same system followed for Cameron’s election in 2005.
Who are the favorites? 
 
According to bookmaker William Hill Plc. Johnson is in front of the pack. The bookies are giving him a 58 percent chance of winning with odds of 8/11. While Michael Gove, a leading Brexit campaigner, is at 10/1, giving him a 9 percent chance, Theresa May, who wanted to stay in the EU, is next at 5/2, give her a probability of 29 percent.
 
Will there be a snap election?
 
Any new prime minister will need a mandate from the electorate before exit talks begin, said Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair’s former chief of staff. Powell said in an interview with the BBC on Friday: “What sort of new relationship are we going to have with the EU?”  “Are we going to be Norway? Are we going to be Canada? who are we going to be?” he said.
 
(Source:www.reuters.com)






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