Stanislav Doronenko
In numerical terms, the deficiency in supply is projected to be no less than 5,300 aircraft. The backlog of orders has now surpassed 17,000 units, accounting for nearly 60% of the entire aircraft fleet, in contrast to a historical average of 30-40%. This backlog represents almost 12 years of existing production capability, as stated in the association's press release.
Amid these issues, the typical age of the aircraft fleet has risen to 15.1 years (12.8 years for passenger planes only, 19.6 for cargo planes, and 14.5 for wide-body jets). The total of aircraft stored surpasses 5,000 units, marking one of the highest points ever, even with a critical lack of new planes.
While new aircraft deliveries started to rise at the end of 2025, and production is anticipated to speed up in 2026, demand is forecasted to surpass the availability of aircraft and engines. IATA reports that a normalization of the structural mismatch between the demands of airlines and production capacity is improbable before 2031-2034, attributable to irreversible delivery losses in the last five years and an unprecedented backlog of orders.
source: iata.org
Amid these issues, the typical age of the aircraft fleet has risen to 15.1 years (12.8 years for passenger planes only, 19.6 for cargo planes, and 14.5 for wide-body jets). The total of aircraft stored surpasses 5,000 units, marking one of the highest points ever, even with a critical lack of new planes.
While new aircraft deliveries started to rise at the end of 2025, and production is anticipated to speed up in 2026, demand is forecasted to surpass the availability of aircraft and engines. IATA reports that a normalization of the structural mismatch between the demands of airlines and production capacity is improbable before 2031-2034, attributable to irreversible delivery losses in the last five years and an unprecedented backlog of orders.
source: iata.org