IEA raises forecast for global oil supply drop in 2026 to 5.7 million bpd


09/14/2026

According to analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supplies in 2026 are expected to decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 100.7 million bpd, as noted in the organization's latest monthly report.



Greg Goebel
A month prior, they predicted a decline to 102 million bpd; consequently, the estimate has been adjusted downward by 1.3 million bpd.

As per the latest projection from the IEA, worldwide oil production is expected to be 103.5 million bpd in Q1 2026 (a decrease from the earlier estimate of 103.6 million bpd), 96.8 million bpd in Q2 (an increase from 96.5 million bpd), 100.9 million bpd in Q3 (a reduction from 101.3 million bpd), and 101.7 million bpd in Q4 (a drop from 106.6 million bpd).

The agency projects that worldwide oil supply dropped by 1.3 million bpd in August, reaching 100.1 million bpd. This drop was caused by Saudi Arabia reducing production by 2.6 million bpd in response to assaults on tankers and energy facilities in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The IEA predicts that worldwide oil production will hit 108.7 million bpd in the coming year, marking an 8 million bpd rise from the estimated amount for this year. Last month, the agency anticipated an increase of 8.3 million bpd; thus, the projection has been reduced by around 300,000 bpd.

source: reuters.com