March 20 Meeting about Freeze on Oil Output Unlikely due to Iran Stumbling Block: Reuters


03/10/2016



Sources have said that it is highly unlikely that a meeting between oil producers to discuss a global pact on freezing production will to take place in Russia on March 20, reports Reuters.
 
The news agency reported that there has yet been no confirmation from OPEC member Iran about its participation in such a deal.
 
Potentially as the next step in widening an agreement to freeze output at January levels struck by OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar plus non-member Russia last month, OPEC officials including Nigeria's oil minister have said a meeting would take place in Moscow on that date.
  
However Iran remains to be the biggest roadblock to a wider deal, OPEC delegates say. As it wants to recover market share it lost under Western sanctions, Tehran feels it should be exempt from the agreement. It will commit to the deal - if all major producers including Iran do so, Kuwait said on Tuesday.
 
"They are not agreeing on the meeting. Why would the ministers meet again now? Iran says they will not do anything. Only if Iran agrees, things will change," said an OPEC source from a major producer, reported Reuters.
 
The global oil prices started a slide in mid-2014 due to oversupply and the pact on freezing output has helped support oil prices. Up 50 percent from a 12-year low of $27.10 reached in January, Brent crude LCOc1 was trading above $40 a barrel on Thursday.
 
Some delegates feel that prices could weaken again if the talks ended in disarray and are wary that if many oil producers met too soon before getting the nod from everyone.
 
"Our view is not to go there with the possibility of no agreement so as not to affect prices negatively," said another source from a major OPEC member, referring to the proposed March 20 meeting, reports Reuters
 
A Gulf delegate said last week that OPEC's Gulf members favor meeting in the first half of April, in Doha or another Gulf city. He expected no major progress until OPEC's next scheduled meeting in June said another OPEC delegate who was more pessimistic.
 
Iran wants to return to much higher pre-sanctions production and Tehran has rejected freezing its output at January levels, put by OPEC secondary sources at 2.93 million barrels per day (bpd).
 
"Tehran wanted a freeze ... for them to be based on 4 million barrels per day, their pre-sanctions production figure," said one source familiar with the discussions and agreed upon by source familiar with Iranian thinking agreed, reported Reuters.
 
The meeting between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Iranian counterpart Bijan Zanganeh next month is expected to settle the issue.  
 
There could be a workable agreement on the table to get Tehran on board, hinted some OPEC sources.
 
"If they are willing to find a solution, they should offer a fair deal to Iran," one said.
 
Precedents for OPEC members to be exempted from agreements on output restraint exist when Iraq was not included for many years due to sanctions and war.
 
(Source:www.reuters.com)