New Fed Chair announces moving away from forward guidance


06/18/2026

New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has discarded its forward guidance forecasts, which it has released since 2003, after his initial meeting as the central bank's chairman.



rawpixel
"Certain members of the Fed leadership believed that forward guidance was not suitable at this moment," he stated.

As a result of the shift away from that forecast, the press release after the meeting was much briefer than normal, featuring only broad comments on important macroeconomic metrics.

"I am unable to provide any forecasts regarding our next steps. However, the positive aspect is that our upcoming meeting is in six weeks," Warsh stated.

The dot plot—a graph depicting the personal interest rate forecasts of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank chairs—released after the June meeting has just 18 dots rather than 19.

Warsh mentioned that he chose not to reveal his expectations. "I did not provide my prediction. It doesn't aid in our policy execution," he stated.

The dot plot indicated that eight out of 18 Fed governors anticipate the rate will stay steady at the existing level of 3.5-3.75% through the end of 2026. A governor anticipates a reduction of 25 basis points. Nine predict a rate hike, comprising three of 25 basis points, five of 50 basis points, and one of 75 basis points.

source: cnn.com