U.S. Fed raises inflation forecast for 2025-2027


06/19/2025

The U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) increased its inflation projection (PCE index) in the United States for 2025 to 3% from the 2.7% anticipated in March, for 2026 - from 2.2% to 2.4%, and for 2027 - from 2% to 2.1%, stated the Fed.



Ken Lund
Simultaneously, the Fed has downgraded its projection for US GDP growth for 2025 - from 1.7% to 1.4%, and for 2026 - from 1.8% to 1.6%. The prediction for 2027 remains at 1.8%.

The central projection among Fed officials is for the key interest rate to decrease to 3.9% by the conclusion of 2025, reflecting a total reduction of 50 basis points this year. The policymakers of the central bank provided a similar prediction in March.

The projected rate for the close of 2026 is currently 3.6% (down from 3.4% in March) and 3.4% (compared to 3.1%) for the end of 2027.

The dot plot from the forecasts issued after the June meeting - a graph depicting the personal interest rate predictions of Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents - indicates that 10 out of 19 policymakers anticipate a reduction of at least 50 basis points in 2025, bringing the range to 3.75% to 4%, with two believing a 75 basis point decrease could occur.

Seven members of the Federal Reserve leadership anticipate that the rate will stay within the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% until the conclusion of 2025.

source: bloomberg.com