US ethane export forecast downgraded by 24% due to trade war with China


06/11/2025

US ethane exports for 2025 are projected to be 24% lower than the previously estimated 410,000 bpd, and the 2026 forecast has been reduced by 51% to 310,000 bpd, according to a June report from the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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On June 4, Enterprise Products Partners revealed that the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the US Department of Commerce has sent a notice denying applications for ethane export permits to China. If put into effect, these refusals would probably lead to a substantial decrease in U.S. ethane exports, since nearly 50% of U.S. ethane is sent to China. The report stated that all ethane imports into China originate from the United States. 

The forecast for U.S. ethane production in 2025 and 2026 has been reduced, as the Energy Department anticipates that ethane will remain mixed with the natural gas stream without export capabilities. The production outlook for 2025 is reduced by 4.2% to 2.8 million bpd, and the 2026 projection is decreased by 12.1% to 2.7 million bpd. 

In the course of the trade wars, China enacted a 125% tariff on ethane imports from the US, but later revoked it.

source: cnn.com