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All Out US-Iran War Unlikely After Downing Of American Drone, Say Analysts


All Out US-Iran War Unlikely After Downing Of American Drone, Say Analysts
It is not likely that the incident involving the bringing down of an American drone by security forces of Iran in the Middle East on Thursday would lead to an all out conflict between the United States and Iran, believe analysts, despite the rising of tensions between Washington and Tehran after the shooting down incident.,
“Neither the Iranians nor the Americans can really gain anything. This is a complete lose-lose situation,” Trita Parsi who is an adjunct associate professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University told the media in an interview.
A unmanned, unarmed military surveillance US drone was brought down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile on Thursday. According to Washington, the drone was shot while it was flying over the Strait of Hormuz which is a recognized international waterway. Iran however claimed that the done had violated into Iranian airspace after which it was brought down.
“This is a tremendously tense situation,” Parsi said and added that “the real trick here is to find a way to de-escalate.”
Following the unilateral decision of the Trump administration last year of withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, there has been rising tension in the relationship of the two countries. Following the withdrawal, the Trump administration had re-imposed the sanctions over the critical oil sector of Iran with the aim of sucking dry the economy of Iran thereby putting pressure of Tehran.
Iran has also been blamed by the US of being behind two attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Those allegations have been squarely denied by Iran.
The blame for the latest escalation of tensions between the two countries was put on Trump by Parsi. “This entire crisis is unnecessary, this was a resolved issue, Trump unfortunately unresolved it and I frankly don’t think he thought it would bring him to this point, ” said Parsi.
According to reports and tweets by Trump himself, he had ordered a military strike against army installations in Iran following the downing of the US drone. He however withdrew the order after he was apprised of the high possibility of human casualties because of such an attack.
“We are literally, on the verge of further escalation,” Parsi warned after the reports of Trump’s order for military action against Iran. “And there are those in the White House who believe that if the U.S. strikes with some Tomahawk missiles, the Iranians will not retaliate. Mindful of everything we’ve seen so far, that seems to me as a very foolish premise,” he said. “The Iranians have made it quite clear that they will retaliate if attacked.”
The Eurasia Group said in a note that in retaliation to the downing of the unarmed Global Hawk aircraft, it is unlikely that the US would use military power. However, according to a report of the political risk consultancy, the probability of a war between the US and Iran was raised to 40 per cent from an earlier prediction of 30 per cent made in a report in May.
“I don’t think either side wants an outbreak at this point right now,” Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs told CNBC’s Street Signs on Friday.