Daily Management Review

BCG: Global economy could lose $10T due to protectionism


The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and HSBC Bank have released a joint report titled “The $ 10 Trillion Case for Open Trade”, aimed at G20 leaders.

The report predicts that the global economy could lose $ 10 trillion by 2025 if governments do not cut high tariffs and abandon trade restrictions. All of this is also slowing the recovery of the global economy from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

BCG stresses that trade restriction measures, which were introduced since 2009 and are still in effect, have a negative impact on approximately 10.3% of G20 imports.

Based on the model of the influence of trade flows on economic growth, the authors of the report compared two scenarios of interaction between the G20 countries.

The first scenario implies a high level of free trade governed by established rules, the second - the maximum possible trade restrictions, including an increase in average world tariffs, prolongation of tariffs in the framework of the trade war between the United States and China, and the introduction of a limited number of new measures aimed at simplifying international trade procedures.

“Our analysis demonstrates that as the global economy is suffering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, but free trade benefits both each country and the global economy as a whole,” said Sukand Ramachandran, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG. Boosting economic growth through the removal of trade barriers can create new jobs around the world.”

source: bcg.com