Daily Management Review

Banking experts improve forecasts for China's GDP amid economic stimulus


03/27/2025


According to The Wall Street Journal, experts are increasingly optimistic about China's economic future due to significant stimulus measures enacted by Beijing, even in light of worries regarding potential trade war repercussions with the U.S.



Japanexperterna.se via flickr
Japanexperterna.se via flickr
In the last month, analysts from various investment banks, such as HSBC, ANZ, and Citigroup Inc., increased their predictions for China's GDP in 2025.

HSBC raised its prediction for Chinese GDP growth to 4.8% from 4.5%, ANZ to 4.8% from 4.3%, and Citi to 4.7% from 4.2%. These projections are near Beijing's goal of 5% for the current year.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), and Nomura also raised their predictions, though they hold a more cautious view of the Chinese economy's future, anticipating a growth rate of 4.5% in 2025. Their earlier projections for the GDP growth rate of China were 4%, 4.1%, and 4% in that order.

Data published earlier in March indicated a faster growth rate in retail sales in China for January-February, along with a greater than anticipated rise in industrial output. The WSJ highlights that the extensive efforts to bolster the economy that Beijing initiated last autumn are yielding positive results.

source: wsj.com