Daily Management Review

Brexit may take a decade and lead to decrease in the population's real income


11/25/2016


British investment bankers interviewed by Bloomberg believe that Brexit may take a decade, if we talk about the structural changes that are bound to occur in the British economy. In turn, analysts of the British Institute of Financial Studies point out that the British will have to come to terms with the slowdown of revenue growth even for a longer period of time.



Investment bankers say that depreciation of the British pound by more than 15% after the June referendum is a sign of structural changes in the economy. In an interview with Bloomberg, Head of Department for Global Investment Strategy at Standard Life bank Andrew Milligan noted that "this is a very long and slow process that will last for ten years." According to him, the market is evaluating the pound at this price as the British economy "just have to go through a number of major structural changes." Stephen Jones, Director of Scottish investment company Kames Capital, called the pound a "whipping boy". "We do not get up in a short position on the pound, but this is not a call for buying it. Although at the moment one can feel some comfort after the government signaled direction of its activities, details of this policy are still unknown ", - said the investment banker.

Speaking about policy of the British authorities concerning Brexit, Mr. Jones is referring to a recent speech by Treasury Secretary Philip Hammond (so-called Autumn Statement), where among other things he outlined broad contours within which the government intends to work. However, the Minister of Finance concerned not only some investment bankers, but also market researchers.

According to Institute For Fiscal Studies - IFS, initiative to support the British economy are insufficient to sustain income growth. "One can only imagine how terrible it is - more than a decade without any real growth in average income", - said Director of the Institute Paul Johnson. In turn, Shadow Finance Minister John McDonnell from the Labour Party believes that the country will face a "lost decade". "The so-called long-term plan is actually a long-term decline in living standards for ordinary people, while corporations and wealthy individuals will be granted tax relief," - said Mr. McDonnell.

source: bloomberg.com






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