When Brazil confirmed its first outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on a commercial poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul in mid-May 2025, it immediately triggered a cascade of trade restrictions across major import markets. Among the most impactful was the decision by the European Union to suspend all imports of Brazilian poultry and meat products. Although Brazil supplies only about 4.4 percent of its total poultry exports to the EU, the bloc accounts for nearly one-third of imported poultry consumed within its borders. The sudden halt underscores the strict biosecurity protocols governing global poultry trade and highlights the broader ramifications for producers, consumers, and policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic.
HPAI Status and EU Import Requirements
Under EU regulations, any country seeking to export poultry or poultry-derived products must maintain an official status of being free from HPAI. This “HPAI‐free” designation is monitored by veterinary authorities both within exporting countries and through notifications to global bodies such as the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Once Brazil’s agricultural ministry reported the outbreak, its entire territory was stripped of the HPAI‐free status. Without that designation, Brazilian veterinary authorities could no longer legally issue the health certificates required for export to the EU, effectively closing that channel until Brazil regains its disease‐free status. In practical terms, once the ministry notified its loss of HPAI freedom, the European Commission’s Directorate‐General for Health and Food Safety issued a statement declaring Brazilian poultry and meat shipments ineligible for entry—regardless of regional differences within Brazil.
The confirmed case on May 16, 2025, involved a large‐scale commercial operation in the municipality of Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul—a state that ranks among Brazil’s foremost poultry‐producing regions. Subsequently, Brazilian veterinary authorities initiated rigorous ring‐culling measures, movement controls, and enhanced surveillance in adjacent farms. Within days, six additional suspected cases were being investigated: two on commercial farms in Santa Catarina and Tocantins, and four among backyard flocks. Each new suspicion brought the risk of prolonging Brazil’s loss of HPAI‐free status. International protocols generally allow an exporting country to petition for reinstatement of disease‐free status 28 days after the last confirmed case—provided that no further infections emerge. During this period, Brazil’s meat and poultry producers face total exclusion from the EU market.
Though the EU is not Brazil’s largest poultry customer—China, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa account for the bulk of exports—its position as the primary supplier to the EU market has disproportionate influence on pricing and supply dynamics. In 2024, Brazil exported over 5 million tons of poultry meat globally, valued at roughly US \$10 billion. Approximately 220,000 tons (4.4 percent) went to EU member states, where Brazilian chicken has been prized for its competitive pricing and relatively high added value (including pre‑prepared cuts and branded products). With the EU ban in place, Brazilian exporters lose that revenue stream entirely. Moreover, China and South Korea both invoked bilateral protocols to impose their own 60‑day suspensions on Brazilian poultry imports, compounding the economic shock. Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have tailored regional bans—permitting imports from states where no HPAI cases have been detected. Despite these partial reopenings, Brazil’s overall export volumes are set to contract sharply in the short term.
Economic Implications for Brazilian Producers
For Brazilian poultry farmers, feed mill operators, slaughterhouses, and associated logistics providers, the EU sanctions represent a sudden and unwelcome disruption to production planning. Many cooperatives scheduled shipments weeks or months in advance to meet contractual obligations. With the EU trade channel closed, storage and inventory costs for processed chicken will climb. Producers now face the logistical challenge of redirecting consignments intended for Europe to alternative markets—often at lower prices or higher tariff rates. The domestic market, saturated with local product and already facing price sensitivity, is unlikely to absorb these volumes without significant price discounts. In rural communities across Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná where poultry operations dominate local economies, lower demand could translate into reduced working hours, layoffs in processing plants, and downward pressure on farmgate prices.
Brazil accounts for roughly 35 percent of the world’s chicken trade. As such, any major disruption reverberates through international commodity markets. With Brazil out of the EU supply chain, European buyers are forced to turn to other exporters—predominantly Thailand, Turkey, and Ukraine—despite those countries commanding higher price points or offering different product mixes. This shift may push EU wholesale chicken prices upward in coming weeks, potentially affecting retail costs in supermarkets and restaurants. Simultaneously, markets in the Middle East and Asia that once relied on Brazilian exports might see tightening supplies and steeper prices. In some instances, smaller producers in countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Mexico could seize the opportunity to expand exports, but only if they can meet stringent health certifications. For global consumers, the looming ripple effects include potential price volatility for chicken meat and related products.
Within Europe, domestic producers have long voiced concerns about Brazilian competition. Even though Brazilian chicken accounts for less than 5 percent of total consumption, it often undercuts local prices—forcing European farmers to trim margins or reduce production costs. The import ban is therefore welcomed by many in the EU poultry sector, as it momentarily alleviates downward price pressure. However, internal production cannot immediately compensate for the shortfall in imported cuts that are typically cheaper than locally raised birds. In particular, segments such as ready‑to‑cook and branded marinated products—where Brazilian processors hold market share—may become scarce. European retailers may need to adjust promotions, rethink inventory levels, and negotiate fresh contracts with domestic or alternative international suppliers. There is also the question of consumer preference: some European consumers specifically seek out Brazilian chicken for its consistent quality and competitive pricing. These shoppers might face higher bills or reduced product variety in the weeks ahead.
Brazil’s poultry disruption arrives at a delicate moment for EU‑Mercosur trade relations. After two decades of negotiations, the EU and Mercosur (which includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) reached a political agreement in 2019 on a sweeping trade pact that has yet to be ratified by member parliaments. The sudden closure of EU doors to Brazilian chicken could strain negotiations, with some EU lawmakers citing animal health concerns as justification for more stringent future safeguards on imports. Meanwhile, Brazilian officials are keen to reassure partners that the outbreak is contained, aiming to minimize long‑term diplomatic fallout. Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro emphasized that the HPAI strain detected poses negligible risk to human health and that rigorous culling and surveillance measures are underway. If Brazil can demonstrate effective containment within 28 days, it will argue for swift reinstatement of trade channels under existing WTO health and safety frameworks.
Impact on Consumer Prices and Availability
For European end‑users, any rapid withdrawal of Brazilian chicken imports can trigger price spikes at retail. Supermarket price trackers in countries such as Germany, France, and Spain have already begun to register modest increases in poultry prices since EU importers scrambled to identify alternative sources. Small‑format stores and restaurants that rely on bulk purchases of Brazilian cuts may experience tighter profit margins or need to pass on higher costs to customers. Paradoxically, while the ban supports EU producers in theory, it also risks making locally produced chicken appear less competitive in terms of shelf price—unless domestic margins are squeezed further. Some EU countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe with thriving poultry sectors, may benefit from increased domestic demand. Yet overall, consumers face the prospect of paying more for chicken fillets, wings, and specialty cuts that were typically imported from Brazil.
The outbreak in Brazil underscores the fragility of global poultry supply chains in the face of disease outbreaks. As the world’s largest chicken exporter, Brazil’s biosecurity protocols are under intense scrutiny. Critics point to the concentration of industrial poultry operations in densely farmed regions—often adjacent to wetlands frequented by migratory birds—as a vulnerability. Avian influenza viruses can transmit from wild waterfowl to domestic flocks through contaminated water or feed. In response, Brazil’s regulatory agencies are reinforcing buffer zones around farms, strengthening biosecurity training for farm workers, and accelerating testing of both commercial and backyard flocks. The episode also serves as a reminder to EU regulators of the importance of continuous surveillance—not only at the point of import but also in neighboring regions that share migratory bird flyways. Strengthened cooperation on disease monitoring between Brazil and EU member states could help detect and respond to outbreaks more swiftly, potentially shortening trade suspensions in the future.
Under existing bilateral and multilateral agreements, Brazil may request reinstatement of its HPAI‐free status 28 days after the final case is resolved, provided no additional outbreaks occur in that period. If all goes according to protocol, the European Commission would then review Brazilian submissions, dispatch veterinary inspectors if necessary, and update import regulations to allow resumption of poultry and meat trade. However, the EU’s decision will also hinge on demonstrating robust surveillance systems, transparent reporting, and adherence to WOAH guidelines. Until then, Brazilian exporters are left to negotiate with alternative buyers—often at discounted price levels due to oversupply. Regionalized restrictions in markets such as Japan and the Gulf States offer a partial lifeline, but do not fully offset the loss of full access to the EU market.
Beyond the 28‑day window, Brazil’s poultry industry is likely to reassess its biosecurity investments. Farms and processing facilities may receive incentives from both federal and state governments to upgrade sanitation systems, install improved filtration and water treatment technologies, and implement real‑time disease tracking through digital platforms. Brazil’s Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) is reportedly collaborating with industry stakeholders to develop vaccines and rapid diagnostic tools tailored to local HPAI strains. On the trade front, Brazilian exporters may diversify away from traditional markets by targeting emerging economies in Southeast Asia and Africa—where demand for affordable protein remains robust. For the EU, the situation underscores the need to maintain domestic capacity and emergency preparedness drills to guard against sudden supply shocks. Some EU policymakers may even advocate for revisiting tariff and non‑tariff barriers in light of the disruption, using this incident to bolster arguments for more restrictive future trade agreements concerning animal health requirements.
The EU’s ban on Brazilian poultry exports reveals the interplay between disease outbreaks, trade regulations, and market dynamics. While the immediate fallout centers on lost revenue for Brazilian producers and supply shortages or price increases for EU consumers, the broader implications extend to diplomatic relations, biosecurity investments, and the resilience of global food supply chains. As Brazil works to contain the HPAI outbreak and restore its disease‐free status, both exporters and importers must navigate the economic and logistic challenges that come with rapid shifts in trade eligibility. In the end, how quickly and effectively Brazil and its partners respond will determine not only the duration of the current ban but also the future contours of international poultry trade.
(Source:www.euronews.com)
HPAI Status and EU Import Requirements
Under EU regulations, any country seeking to export poultry or poultry-derived products must maintain an official status of being free from HPAI. This “HPAI‐free” designation is monitored by veterinary authorities both within exporting countries and through notifications to global bodies such as the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Once Brazil’s agricultural ministry reported the outbreak, its entire territory was stripped of the HPAI‐free status. Without that designation, Brazilian veterinary authorities could no longer legally issue the health certificates required for export to the EU, effectively closing that channel until Brazil regains its disease‐free status. In practical terms, once the ministry notified its loss of HPAI freedom, the European Commission’s Directorate‐General for Health and Food Safety issued a statement declaring Brazilian poultry and meat shipments ineligible for entry—regardless of regional differences within Brazil.
The confirmed case on May 16, 2025, involved a large‐scale commercial operation in the municipality of Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul—a state that ranks among Brazil’s foremost poultry‐producing regions. Subsequently, Brazilian veterinary authorities initiated rigorous ring‐culling measures, movement controls, and enhanced surveillance in adjacent farms. Within days, six additional suspected cases were being investigated: two on commercial farms in Santa Catarina and Tocantins, and four among backyard flocks. Each new suspicion brought the risk of prolonging Brazil’s loss of HPAI‐free status. International protocols generally allow an exporting country to petition for reinstatement of disease‐free status 28 days after the last confirmed case—provided that no further infections emerge. During this period, Brazil’s meat and poultry producers face total exclusion from the EU market.
Though the EU is not Brazil’s largest poultry customer—China, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa account for the bulk of exports—its position as the primary supplier to the EU market has disproportionate influence on pricing and supply dynamics. In 2024, Brazil exported over 5 million tons of poultry meat globally, valued at roughly US \$10 billion. Approximately 220,000 tons (4.4 percent) went to EU member states, where Brazilian chicken has been prized for its competitive pricing and relatively high added value (including pre‑prepared cuts and branded products). With the EU ban in place, Brazilian exporters lose that revenue stream entirely. Moreover, China and South Korea both invoked bilateral protocols to impose their own 60‑day suspensions on Brazilian poultry imports, compounding the economic shock. Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have tailored regional bans—permitting imports from states where no HPAI cases have been detected. Despite these partial reopenings, Brazil’s overall export volumes are set to contract sharply in the short term.
Economic Implications for Brazilian Producers
For Brazilian poultry farmers, feed mill operators, slaughterhouses, and associated logistics providers, the EU sanctions represent a sudden and unwelcome disruption to production planning. Many cooperatives scheduled shipments weeks or months in advance to meet contractual obligations. With the EU trade channel closed, storage and inventory costs for processed chicken will climb. Producers now face the logistical challenge of redirecting consignments intended for Europe to alternative markets—often at lower prices or higher tariff rates. The domestic market, saturated with local product and already facing price sensitivity, is unlikely to absorb these volumes without significant price discounts. In rural communities across Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná where poultry operations dominate local economies, lower demand could translate into reduced working hours, layoffs in processing plants, and downward pressure on farmgate prices.
Brazil accounts for roughly 35 percent of the world’s chicken trade. As such, any major disruption reverberates through international commodity markets. With Brazil out of the EU supply chain, European buyers are forced to turn to other exporters—predominantly Thailand, Turkey, and Ukraine—despite those countries commanding higher price points or offering different product mixes. This shift may push EU wholesale chicken prices upward in coming weeks, potentially affecting retail costs in supermarkets and restaurants. Simultaneously, markets in the Middle East and Asia that once relied on Brazilian exports might see tightening supplies and steeper prices. In some instances, smaller producers in countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Mexico could seize the opportunity to expand exports, but only if they can meet stringent health certifications. For global consumers, the looming ripple effects include potential price volatility for chicken meat and related products.
Within Europe, domestic producers have long voiced concerns about Brazilian competition. Even though Brazilian chicken accounts for less than 5 percent of total consumption, it often undercuts local prices—forcing European farmers to trim margins or reduce production costs. The import ban is therefore welcomed by many in the EU poultry sector, as it momentarily alleviates downward price pressure. However, internal production cannot immediately compensate for the shortfall in imported cuts that are typically cheaper than locally raised birds. In particular, segments such as ready‑to‑cook and branded marinated products—where Brazilian processors hold market share—may become scarce. European retailers may need to adjust promotions, rethink inventory levels, and negotiate fresh contracts with domestic or alternative international suppliers. There is also the question of consumer preference: some European consumers specifically seek out Brazilian chicken for its consistent quality and competitive pricing. These shoppers might face higher bills or reduced product variety in the weeks ahead.
Brazil’s poultry disruption arrives at a delicate moment for EU‑Mercosur trade relations. After two decades of negotiations, the EU and Mercosur (which includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) reached a political agreement in 2019 on a sweeping trade pact that has yet to be ratified by member parliaments. The sudden closure of EU doors to Brazilian chicken could strain negotiations, with some EU lawmakers citing animal health concerns as justification for more stringent future safeguards on imports. Meanwhile, Brazilian officials are keen to reassure partners that the outbreak is contained, aiming to minimize long‑term diplomatic fallout. Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro emphasized that the HPAI strain detected poses negligible risk to human health and that rigorous culling and surveillance measures are underway. If Brazil can demonstrate effective containment within 28 days, it will argue for swift reinstatement of trade channels under existing WTO health and safety frameworks.
Impact on Consumer Prices and Availability
For European end‑users, any rapid withdrawal of Brazilian chicken imports can trigger price spikes at retail. Supermarket price trackers in countries such as Germany, France, and Spain have already begun to register modest increases in poultry prices since EU importers scrambled to identify alternative sources. Small‑format stores and restaurants that rely on bulk purchases of Brazilian cuts may experience tighter profit margins or need to pass on higher costs to customers. Paradoxically, while the ban supports EU producers in theory, it also risks making locally produced chicken appear less competitive in terms of shelf price—unless domestic margins are squeezed further. Some EU countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe with thriving poultry sectors, may benefit from increased domestic demand. Yet overall, consumers face the prospect of paying more for chicken fillets, wings, and specialty cuts that were typically imported from Brazil.
The outbreak in Brazil underscores the fragility of global poultry supply chains in the face of disease outbreaks. As the world’s largest chicken exporter, Brazil’s biosecurity protocols are under intense scrutiny. Critics point to the concentration of industrial poultry operations in densely farmed regions—often adjacent to wetlands frequented by migratory birds—as a vulnerability. Avian influenza viruses can transmit from wild waterfowl to domestic flocks through contaminated water or feed. In response, Brazil’s regulatory agencies are reinforcing buffer zones around farms, strengthening biosecurity training for farm workers, and accelerating testing of both commercial and backyard flocks. The episode also serves as a reminder to EU regulators of the importance of continuous surveillance—not only at the point of import but also in neighboring regions that share migratory bird flyways. Strengthened cooperation on disease monitoring between Brazil and EU member states could help detect and respond to outbreaks more swiftly, potentially shortening trade suspensions in the future.
Under existing bilateral and multilateral agreements, Brazil may request reinstatement of its HPAI‐free status 28 days after the final case is resolved, provided no additional outbreaks occur in that period. If all goes according to protocol, the European Commission would then review Brazilian submissions, dispatch veterinary inspectors if necessary, and update import regulations to allow resumption of poultry and meat trade. However, the EU’s decision will also hinge on demonstrating robust surveillance systems, transparent reporting, and adherence to WOAH guidelines. Until then, Brazilian exporters are left to negotiate with alternative buyers—often at discounted price levels due to oversupply. Regionalized restrictions in markets such as Japan and the Gulf States offer a partial lifeline, but do not fully offset the loss of full access to the EU market.
Beyond the 28‑day window, Brazil’s poultry industry is likely to reassess its biosecurity investments. Farms and processing facilities may receive incentives from both federal and state governments to upgrade sanitation systems, install improved filtration and water treatment technologies, and implement real‑time disease tracking through digital platforms. Brazil’s Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) is reportedly collaborating with industry stakeholders to develop vaccines and rapid diagnostic tools tailored to local HPAI strains. On the trade front, Brazilian exporters may diversify away from traditional markets by targeting emerging economies in Southeast Asia and Africa—where demand for affordable protein remains robust. For the EU, the situation underscores the need to maintain domestic capacity and emergency preparedness drills to guard against sudden supply shocks. Some EU policymakers may even advocate for revisiting tariff and non‑tariff barriers in light of the disruption, using this incident to bolster arguments for more restrictive future trade agreements concerning animal health requirements.
The EU’s ban on Brazilian poultry exports reveals the interplay between disease outbreaks, trade regulations, and market dynamics. While the immediate fallout centers on lost revenue for Brazilian producers and supply shortages or price increases for EU consumers, the broader implications extend to diplomatic relations, biosecurity investments, and the resilience of global food supply chains. As Brazil works to contain the HPAI outbreak and restore its disease‐free status, both exporters and importers must navigate the economic and logistic challenges that come with rapid shifts in trade eligibility. In the end, how quickly and effectively Brazil and its partners respond will determine not only the duration of the current ban but also the future contours of international poultry trade.
(Source:www.euronews.com)
