Daily Management Review

ExxonMobil expects global oil production to decline by 15% per year without new investment


09/01/2025


ExxonMobil states in its Global Outlook that continued investment in discovering and developing new oil and gas reserves is increasingly crucial.



Bureau of Land Management
Bureau of Land Management
“Our prediction indicates that without additional investment, oil output will decrease by approximately 15% annually. This reflects a change in the worldwide production mix towards unconventional sources (...). When we mention "no new investment," we refer to a situation where all financial support ceases immediately. No additional capital is injected, and producers extract as much as possible from each well.” 

ExxonMobil states that by 2030, this strategy will result in a deficiency of approximately 70 million barrels per day in global oil supply.

The company also created a scenario where investments would solely focus on current fields - for operational maintenance and infill drilling: “This restricts funding for geological exploration to find new fields and enhance those already identified.” Restricting investments solely to current sectors would reduce the production decline to approximately 4%.

ExxonMobil estimates that by 2050, oil demand will hit approximately 105 million barrels per day, up from roughly 100 million bpd in 2024.

It is observed that substantial amounts of natural gas are also required to satisfy the continuously increasing demand for energy sources.

source: reuters.com