Daily Management Review

Fitch forecasts LNG imports growth to the EU


According to a forecast by Fitch Ratings, liquefied natural gas imports to the European Union might increase by about 30%, from 120 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 155 billion cubic meters in 2023.

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"In order to counterbalance Russia's rapidly diminishing gas supply, LNG will continue to play a significant role as an alternate source of gas. In 2022, EU LNG imports increased by 51% (annualized) to a little over 120 billion cubic meters. Given the limits of the LNG and pipeline infrastructure in Europe, we anticipate imports to expand further to 155 billion cubic meters in 2023," analysts at Fitch said.

According to the estimate, the European Union's demand will drop by more than 10% in 2022 due to the substantial increase in gas costs. Generally speaking, the demand for gas could decrease by 15% in 2023 compared to 2021. Price-driven demand declines ranged from 14% in Germany to 7% in Italy.

In 2023, the global LNG markets will "remain tight," and the gradual easing of Chinese restrictions would only make matters worse. However, while being price-dependent, there will be enough LNG available for Europe, increasing rivalry with Asian consumers, the report added.

source: fitchratings.com