Daily Management Review

Goldman Sachs still expects oil price above $ 80


06/18/2018


Goldman Sachs still expects the price of oil to rise above $ 80 a barrel in the coming months, despite growing concerns about OPEC production growth and the escalation of trade wars, CNBC reports.



JasperMorse
JasperMorse
Quotes of oil fell last week on fears that Saudi Arabia and Russia could soon proceed to increase oil production.

However, Goldman analysts believe that the prospect of raising the level of production that OPEC + can announce this week could actually have a "bullish" effect on prices.

"Our updated global supply and demand balance continues to indicate further decline in inventories and higher oil prices in the second half of 2018," the bank said, confirming its previous Brent price forecast at $ 82.50 per barrel during the summer.

"We continue, however, to consider the risks to this forecast as biased upwards, although concerns over demand and higher OPEC production will affect prices in the near future," Goldman said.

On Monday, oil prices moved to growth. The price of August futures for Brent to 16:45 Moscow time increased by 1.48% to $ 74.53 per barrel.

The world's largest oil producers will meet on June 22-23 in Vienna, where they will discuss whether to increase production or maintain production constraints.

Analysts at Goldman predicted that OPEC and Russia will increase production by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2018 and another 500 thousand bpd in the first half of 2019. But, according to the bank, the consequences of such a step are likely to be compensated by interruptions in supplies from Venezuela and Iran.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak earlier said that Russia and Saudi Arabia offer to increase production by 1.5 million bpd in the third quarter.

However, Iran said that, along with Venezuela and Iraq, will block a proposal to increase production at the OPEC + meeting.

According to Bloomberg sources, OPEC members are discussing a compromise agreement, under which oil production will be increased by 300-600 thousand bpd in the next few months.

source: cnbc.com






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