Daily Management Review

IEA: oil supply will outpace demand in 2019


02/13/2019


The International Energy Agency announced that it would be difficult for the global oil market to absorb the fast-growing oil supplies from non-OPEC countries, even with reduction of the group’s production and US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, Reuters reports.



pixabay
pixabay
In its monthly report on the oil market, IEA left the growth forecast for world demand for 2019 unchanged from the previous month at the level of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd).

"This is supported by lower prices and the launch of petrochemical projects in China and the United States. A slowdown in economic growth, however, will limit the growth potential," the agency said.

IEA raised its forecast for growth in oil supply outside OPEC in 2019 from 1.6 million bpd to 1.8 million bpd.

At the same time, the agency reduced the OPEC oil demand forecast for 2019 to 30.7 million bpd. In January, the IEA predicted demand at 31.6 million bpd.

According to the IEA, OPEC oil production in January fell by 930 thousand bpd to 30.83 million bpd, reaching an almost four-year low.

In December, OPEC and other oil producers, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.2 million bpd from January to support oil prices.

In addition, US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela have limited the supply of heavier oil. This caused disruptions in the work of some oil refineries, but did not lead to a sharp increase in oil prices in 2019.

"The introduction of US sanctions against the Venezuelan state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is another reminder of the tremendous importance of political events for [the oil market]," the IEA said.

"Despite this, oil prices remained virtually unchanged on the news of the sanctions. This can be explained by the fact that, in terms of the amount of crude oil, markets can be adjusted after the initial logistical failures," the IEA added. "There is enough stock in most markets now".

"The market is still working out the surplus accumulated in the second half of 2018," the agency noted.

"In quantitative terms, in 2019, only the United States will increase oil production by an amount exceeding the current production of Venezuela. From the point of view of quality, everything is more complicated. Quality matters," the IEA said.

source: reuters.com






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