Daily Management Review

JPMorgan: US economy will enter recession in Q4 2023 - Q1 2024


JPMorgan Chase analysts warned that the US economy may enter a recession in the last quarter of 2023 or the first quarter of 2024.

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"In the absence of preventive [monetary policy] easing from the Fed (while its expectations suggest two more [interest rate] hikes before year-end), we forecast a more challenging macroeconomic environment for the stock market in the second half of the year amid weakening consumer trends, and quotes will change dramatically by then," the bank’s analysts told their clients, according to MarketWatch.

Investors may realize that quotations are significantly overvalued when economic development starts to slow down, the newspaper writes.

The outperformance of those currently trailing, according to some, will serve as the market's next source of support in the second half of 2023, the bank experts say. But given that laggard issuers are more cycle-bound, have less leeway to raise prices, and are more susceptible to changes in interest rates, the analysts see this as a concern.

source: marketwatch.com