Daily Management Review

Panama Canal’s Strategic Moves To Attract U.S. LNG Exports Back To Asia Amid Rising Demand


10/29/2024




As demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia surges, the Panama Canal is working to reclaim the LNG traffic it lost to longer routes around South America due to recent disruptions. The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) has introduced a new reservation system aimed at incentivizing U.S. LNG exporters to return to the canal as their preferred route to Asia. This shift comes after the canal saw a 65% decline in LNG transits last year, as European demand and transit costs pushed many exporters to avoid Panama in favor of routes around Cape Horn.
 
Shift of LNG Exports to Europe and Impacts of Drought
 
The redirection of U.S. LNG exports from Asia to Europe was initially fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which heightened Europe’s reliance on alternative gas sources, including the U.S. However, severe drought in Panama has exacerbated the situation, increasing waiting times and driving up fees, thus deterring many LNG vessels from using the canal.
 
The Canal Authority’s administrator, Ricaurte Vazquez, acknowledged that multiple factors contributed to this trend, noting that prolonged drought restrictions limited water levels, impacting the transit capacity of large LNG vessels. U.S. exporters such as Cheniere Energy, the nation’s leading LNG producer, decided that taking the longer route around South America was often more economical than waiting for passage through Panama, where transit fees can be substantial.
 
“Many don’t realize that navigating through the canal is not a free shortcut,” said Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President of Cheniere Energy. “Depending on global LNG prices and delivery terms, going around Cape Horn can make economic sense.”
 
The Canal’s Response: New Reservation System and Future Enhancements
 
In response to these challenges, the PCA has introduced a long-term reservation system, enabling shippers to secure transit slots up to a year in advance, a move intended to bring back U.S. LNG exporters as Asian demand rises. This system is part of the Canal’s broader strategy to facilitate more frequent and reliable LNG shipments, ensuring that vessels with long-term contracts can access shorter wait times and lower transit costs.
 
The first auction of reserved slots, completed this month, generated $394 million and is expected to secure up to 40% of the total transits through Panama’s largest locks in 2025. Currently, Panama offers two daily transit slots for LNG vessels, but the new reservation system is expected to streamline the scheduling process, especially during peak seasons when Asian demand typically increases. The PCA has also set aside a number of slots for vessels without reservations, aiming to make transit through the canal more accessible.
 
Growing LNG Demand in Asia and Strategic Canal Upgrades
 
The increasing energy needs of Asian markets, especially in China, South Korea, and India, are set to drive growth in LNG demand. U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exports are poised to play a critical role in meeting this demand, positioning the Panama Canal as a vital passage for energy exports to Asia. PCA anticipates that sustained demand from Asia could lead to a steady return of LNG transits through the canal, especially as U.S. exporters seek shorter routes to capitalize on rising consumption.
 
To prepare for this anticipated uptick, the PCA is exploring infrastructure and policy upgrades. While recent drought conditions underscored the canal’s limitations, Vazquez shared that several improvements are in discussion, including nighttime transit capabilities for LNG vessels through Panama’s newest locks and other measures to manage water usage during dry years. The canal is also closely monitoring the expansion of the global LNG fleet and tracking new U.S. LNG projects, which are likely to boost demand for its largest locks as larger, more sophisticated LNG vessels enter the market.
 
Global Competition and Panama’s Position
 
With European LNG demand remaining high and new U.S. LNG projects awaiting authorization, Panama faces competition from alternative routes, particularly as LNG producers explore cost-effective pathways that bypass transit fees. However, the PCA’s efforts to implement a flexible, pre-booked reservation system show its commitment to maintaining relevance amid a changing global energy landscape. As Panama seeks to remain the most efficient route for U.S.-Asian LNG trade, its strategic focus on improved access and infrastructure could prove pivotal in attracting back the lost segment of the LNG market.
 
The Canal’s fiscal outlook remains positive, with net income rising 9.5% to $3.45 billion for the year ending in September, reflecting the success of its revamped reservation strategy. However, securing the LNG sector’s loyalty will likely depend on Panama’s continued adaptation to global LNG trade dynamics and its ability to offer a reliable, faster, and economically viable route for exporters looking to meet Asia’s growing energy demands.
 
In the coming 18 months, as more advanced LNG vessels and floating storage units capable of feeding onshore facilities pass through the canal, Panama's strategic location and adaptive measures may help it reclaim its status as the preferred corridor for U.S. LNG exports to Asia, balancing the needs of the energy market with the evolving demands of international trade.
 
(Source:www.naturalgasworld.com)