Daily Management Review

WEF experts forecast five scenarios for global trade


Economists at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, have compiled five scenarios for the global economy and trade against the backdrop of the geopolitical situation. The document is published on the WEF website.

World Economic Forum/swiss-image.ch
World Economic Forum/swiss-image.ch
There are five scenarios in the review.

The first one suggests abandoning ties with Russia and Belarus. In this scenario, export sanctions are expected to be prolonged and international brands will continue withdrawing from the Russian market.

The second scenario looks at a "rehabilitation" of Moscow. In the event of a "credible" end to the conflict, the risk of exacerbating fragmentation of the global trading system would be reduced.

The third scenario envisages "reactive fragmentation". This means that sanctions could affect including those countries that continue to support Russia.

A fourth scenario envisages closer integration of allied states. They could embrace reforms that introduce common regulation in some areas.

The fifth option was titled the phrase "non-allied poor". It considers a scenario in which a number of World Trade Organisation (WTO) member countries would cooperate only with those who share their views on the "liberal world economic order". Other countries would be stripped of their privileges.

source: weforum.org