Daily Management Review

2018 Could See An Increase In Terror Attacks Where Both ISIS As Al-Qaeda Continue To Present Threats


While it may be said that the "caliphate" is in ruins, it doesn't mean that ISIS does not exist anymore.
Experts say that the conviction of the ISIS to strike on Western countries would be intensified by the destruction of their physical assets and strongholds in Iraq and Syria and this could lead to a likely increase in terror attacks in 2018.

"ISIS will want to show that they are still in the fight, and their followers remain as fanatical as ever," said Lewis-Sage Passant, a former British Army intelligence officer and founder of travel security company HowSafeIsMyTrip. "The number of attacks globally will likely increase as the group switches focus from the war in the Middle East to international terrorism."
Similar arguments were made by Adam Deen, executive director of counter-extremism think tank Quilliam.
"We're going to see without a doubt more attacks in the West," he told UK newspaper the Independent in October. He said that there were many who reveled in a false sense of victory after the death of Osama Bin Laden and that should not be repeated with ISIS because they would be more focused on revenge now.
"They will be less able to mount well-funded operations such as the Paris attacks. But they want to show that they are still in the fight."-Lewis-Sage Passant, former intelligence officer, speaking on ISIS
Despite the security forces having destroyed the main source of ISIS propaganda on online and elsewhere which was the former ISIS "capital" of Raqqa, Syria, propaganda would continue. 
"Threats in the West will persist in the form of people who are still inspired by the propaganda that has been disseminated by ISIS," Anthony Richards, an assistant professor in Terrorism Studies at the University of East London, said.
"I think in the longer term, the defeat of ISIS and the propaganda defeat that goes with that will actually reduce the threat in the UK and Europe, but ... In the shorter term, we'll still see more terrorist attacks."

There is a likelihood of an increase in minor terrorist incidents such as knife and vehicle attacks according to many as they foresee a drop in the lethality of attacks by the terrorist group but an increase in frequency of attacks.
"The loss of ISIS' central coordination and revenue-generating capabilities means that they will be less able to mount well-funded operations such as the Paris attacks," Sage-Passant said, "But they want to show that they are still in the fight."
From the battle fields of Syria, it is estimated that about 25,000 foreign fighters from 100 countries have returned back to their homes. But 5,600 is the number of foreign fighters who have returned back to their homeland in 33 countries according to a report by the Soufan Center in October. The agency also revealed that among those who have gone to Syria to join ISIS, about 25 to 30 percent have already returned back. About 50 per cent have returned to their home countries of the U.K., Sweden and Denmark.

The figure for the U.S. is much smaller because according to the same report, only about 129 fighters from the country had managed to reach Syria. And as of October this year, only seven have returned back.
This rate of returns is a cause of serious concern for the domestic authorities. Many however believe that the returning back cannot be effectively stopped by taking a measure as the one taken by U.S. president Donald Trump of banning entry of people from six majority-Muslim countries.
"The underlying ideology that drives the violence of groups like ISIS is not a physical entity that can be stopped by territorial borders," Mubaraz Ahmed, analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, said.