Daily Management Review

Analyst: Oil prices are about to reach the peak


The oil market is in the final phase of its growth cycle and prices could soon peak, said Norbert Rücker, head of Next Generation futures research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.

"We expect oil prices to move well above the $70/bbl mark by mid-year. That said, we still believe that the oil market is in the final phase of its cycle," notes Rücker.

Brent crude is currently trading comfortably above $70 a barrel, and on Tuesday it was above $71 for the first time since 8 March. Oil is now up 1.5% to $71.3.

According to Julius Baer, prices have been pushed up by positive demand dynamics and likely delays in nuclear negotiations with Iran. As a result, economic recovery in western countries and stronger oil demand remain key factors, overshadowed so far by difficulties related to new restrictive measures in Asia.

Prices also benefited from the last OPEC+ meeting, which ended with positive statements on strengthening global oil demand, justifying the decision to continue easing oil production restrictions in July.

"Prices will peak by the middle of the year as supplies are constrained artificially rather than structurally. That said, we are closely watching the pressure on western companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero," Rücker concluded.

source: reuters.com