Daily Management Review

Analysts: Probability of recession in the United States reaches the highest level


12/20/2018


According to a recent survey among economists and financiers conducted by CNBC and the Federal Reserve System (FRS), the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months rose to a record level for the entire period of the presidency of Donald Trump and reached 23%. More than 40 economists, stock managers and strategic analysts were surveyed. Experts are worried about consequences of Mr. Trump's economic policy, raising tariffs and tensions in trade relations with China.



Lipton sale
Lipton sale
According to a joint poll by CNBC and the Fed, released on Tuesday, the likelihood that the US economy will go into recession in the next 12 months has grown noticeably. If two months ago, only 14% of respondents did not exclude such a probability, now there are already 23% of such people.

For the CNBC/Fed survey, this was the highest level ever since Donald Trump's rule.

The survey has been conducted regularly over the past seven years. During this time, the average level of pessimistic expectations for the American economy was no more than 19%.
"Moods that lead to an increase in pessimism with regard to the economy have previously caused sales in the stock markets," - the TV channel quoted of one of the survey participants, the chief economist of the analytical company Action Economics Mike Englund.

43 economists, strategic analysts, fund managers and other experts took part in the CNBC/Fed survey. The results show that the majority of respondents are still not inclined to expect a recession as early as 2019. “The next recession is already becoming visible, but not in 2019,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. “The reason for this is that the government, with the current budget deficit, will increase support for the economy over the next year.”

Uncertainty is increasing as more and more analysts are experiencing growing pessimism about Donald Trump's economic policies. If in the last survey the level of approval of its economic policy was 66%, now it has dropped by 14% to 52%. Accordingly, the share of those who disapprove of the economic measures of the American president has increased - from 21% in the last survey to 31% now.

In mid-November, another poll conducted by Reuters recorded an increase in pessimism, too. In the study, 35% of the polled experts considered that a recession could occur in the United States in the next two years, and there were 30% of them in the previous survey.

“The economy is moving towards turbulence, which is the deferred effect of previous increases in the Fed's rates, the high dollar rate and the uncertainty caused by trade protectionism,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “All this ia happening against the background of slowdown in the external demand for goods and services as well as thanks to the feeling that support from fiscal stimulus measures will gradually weaken.”

source: cnbc.com






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