Daily Management Review

Analysts improved forecasts of world economic growth


01/09/2018


Specialists of Barclays Bank revised their forecasts for the growth of world GDP, and now these figures are higher. In 2018, the world economy will grow by 4.1%, in 2019 - 3.9%. Other observers - the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - agree with the expectation of a revival of the world economy. However, the forecasts of the latter are more modest - in 2017, GDP growth will be 3.5%, and by 2018 will accelerate to 3.7%.



pixabay
pixabay
As follows from the report of the British bank Barclays, "world economic growth remains stable, commodity prices are rising, the situation in the labor market is improving, and the trend of lower inflation continues." This improves forecasts of the world economy: according to analysts of the bank, the growth of world GDP in 2018 will be 4.1%, a year later - 3.9%. Earlier indicators were expected at the level of 4% and 3.8% respectively. The US economy, in particular, is expected to grow by 2.7% this year, and in 2019 will slow to 2.3%. The economic growth of the Eurozone countries will be 2-2.2% in the next two years. In the UK, GDP is expected to grow by 1.3%, in China - by 6.2-6.4%. At the same time, Barclays expects growth precisely from developed countries: the forecast for the aggregate GDP growth of developing economies has not been revised - it still stands at 5.3% for 2018 and 5.2% for 2019th.

In the fall of last year, IMF representatives also announced their expectations of the growth of the global economy. At the same time, the fund believes that despite the growth of investment, trade and industrial production, the global economic recovery cannot be recognized as final: in most developed countries, inflation remains below the target level, and the growth potential in other regions of the world is still weak.

According to the same OECD, the growth of the world economy in 2017 will be 3.5%, and by 2018 will accelerate to 3.7%. The domestic economy, in turn, will grow at 2.4% in the next two years, the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) says.

Meanwhile, PwC's new Global Economy Watch report predicts that the global economy will grow by almost 4% in purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2018, adding an additional $ 5 trillion to global production at current prices.

As the authors of the forecast indicate, world growth will be the fastest since 2011. "The growth will be large-scale and synchronized, independent of several countries. The main engines of the world economy are expected to be the USA, the developing countries of Asia and the Eurozone, whose contribution in 2017 will account for almost 70% of economic growth," the report says.

In particular, the euro area's GDP will grow at a rate of more than 2% in 2018, with the economies of peripheral Eurozone countries growing faster than the main countries for the fifth consecutive year (2.5% vs. 2%). It is expected that Ireland will be the fastest growing peripheral economy (growth of 3.5%). And the UK economy will show, due to Brexit, growth of only about 1.4% in 2018.
The growth of China's economy will be 6-7% in 2018.

The unemployment rate in the G7 countries can reach a 40-year low - below 5%.

Average oil prices will remain generally stable in real terms in 2018.

The report also notes that in 2018, the world's electricity deficit will peak.

source: bloomberg.com, investing.com






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