Daily Management Review

Analytics: Excess oil protects prices from risks


Global oil production in December 2019 immediately fell by 780 thousand barrels per day (bpd), to 100.7 million bpd, and this is 1.3 million bpd less than a year earlier, follows from January report of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Nevertheless, an excess of oil supply remains on the market, which is reflected in a restrained reaction of price quotations to growing geopolitical risks, the agency points out.

Barta IV via flickr
Barta IV via flickr
Deliveries from OPEC countries in December fell by 180 thousand bpd to 29.44 mln bpd. Year-on-year, this indicator decreased by 2.4 million bps; Iran and Venezuela provided 1.2 million bpd of this decline, the export of which was significantly limited by American sanctions. Saudi Arabia in December further reduced production by 200 thousand bpd to 9.68 mln bpd, bringing the level of execution of the OPEC+ transaction to 296% of the obligations taken. The second largest producer in the cartel, Iraq, also reduced supplies (minus 60 thousand bpd to 4.59 mln bpd, 45% of the deal). In general, for the countries of the cartel (excluding Iran, Venezuela and Libya), the conditions of the agreement in December were fulfilled by 181%. Among OPEC + participants not included in the cartel, the transaction completion rate was only 59%.

Recall that on December 6, 2019, the parties to the OPEC+ agreement agreed to further limit oil production by increasing the level of reduction in supplies from 1.2 million to 1.7 million bpd (compared with the volume of production in October 2018). Saudi Arabia has promised to voluntarily reduce supplies by another 400 thousand bpd, which will bring the total reduction to 2.1 million bpd. Compared with the current level of deliveries, in order to fulfill the new conditions, participants need to reduce supplies by 300 thousand bpd.

Given the growth of supplies by non-cartel countries by 2.1 million bpd this year, the forecasted demand for OPEC oil in the first half of 2020 will decrease to 28.5 million bpd. If the promised supply restrictions are implemented in full, OPEC supplies (29.3 million bpd) will still exceed this figure. The forecast of total demand for the whole of 2020 by the IEA remained unchanged - plus 1.2 million bpd to the level of 2019, up to 101.5 million bpd.

source: iea.org