Daily Management Review

European Commission improves global GDP growth forecast for 2021


The EC improved GDP growth expectations on the global scale for this year to 5.7% from May's 5.6%, the EC's autumn forecast states.

The estimate for 2022 is raised to 4.5% from May's 4.3%, with growth of 3.5% expected in 2023.

The growth outlook for developed economies stays strong at 5.4% in 2021, showing activity in the service sector. "However, the recovery will be less pronounced in some cases and will affect 2022," the report said. GDP growth for advanced economies is expected to slow to 3.9% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

Developing economies are projected to grow 6% this year, 4.8% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023, the report said.

Global merchandise trade returned to pre-similar levels in the last quarter of 2020 and showed faster growth than expected in the first half of 2021, the forecast said. However, recent data points to a slowdown in this trend due to disruptions in transport and supply chains, as well as a reorientation of spending towards services, says the EC.

In summer, the EC had expected GDP to rise by 4.8% this year and 4.5% in 2022.

The European Commission downgraded its 2021 estimate for US GDP growth to 5.8% from the 6.3% forecast in May, according to the EC's autumn forecast.

The 2022 estimate was raised to 4.5% from 3.8% in May, with growth of 2.4% expected in 2023.

The European Commission kept China's GDP growth forecast for 2021 at 7.9%, while lowering expectations for 2022 to 5.3% from 5.4%, according to the EC's autumn economic report.

For 2023, the European Commission forecasts the Chinese economy to grow by 5.3% as well. In 2020, the EC estimates growth at 2.3%.

source: ec.europa.eu