Daily Management Review

Global Airlines Likely To Completely Recover To Pre-Covid-19 Levels Only In 2024


Global Airlines Likely To Completely Recover To Pre-Covid-19 Levels Only In 2024
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the apex industry body for global airlines has predicted that it would not be until 2024 that the industry would be able to return back to pre-crisis levels in terms of business.
The IATA had previously estimated that it would take the global; airline industry until 2023 to completely recover from the shock of the novel coronavirus pandemic on the industry. On Tuesday it predicted that the industry will require an additional year to recover completely.
The slow pace of containment of the pandemic in the United States and some of the developing countries and the weak demand outlook for corporate travel ere cited as the reasons for the IATA extending its recovery period predictions in an update on the pandemic's crippling impact on global air travel.
IATA said that there was downward pressure on nearer-term prospects because of extension of restrictions on travel and newly imposed restrictions in some market where there has been a resurgence of the virus infection. It thus cut its 2020 passenger numbers forecast to a 55 per cent decline – which was higher than the 46 per cent it had predicted in April.
"The second half of this year will see a slower recovery than we'd hoped," IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said. The organization said that after falling by a massive 91 per cent in May, the number of air passenger numbers in June was down by 86.5 per cent year on year.
Pearce said that a lot of uncertainty has also been created by a surprise move by Britain to quarantine arrivals from Spain. "That is clearly going to be an issue with the recovery," Pearce said.
IATA said that 40 per cent of global air travel is counted for by the United States and the developing countries combined and a rise in Cvodi-19 cases in these countries has weakened recovery prospects of the global airline industry.
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines Director General Subhas Menon said that without a reasonably priced testing regime that was deemed acceptable by governments, it is unlikely that there would be a significant rebound in international air travel.
"We need advice from public health experts on how to go about that," he told the media. "If it is cheap enough then maybe you can expect travelers to pay for it. At the moment the cost is quite intimidating."
Further, the profitability of long-haul airlines and routes is also being impacted by the prospect of a sustained drop in business travel with corporate implementing measures to reduce costs and spending and make increase use of video conferencing technology to conduct meetings which had become the norm during lockdowns imposed to stop the spread of the pandemic across the world.
"It will remain to be seen whether we see a recovery to pre-crisis business travel patterns," Pearce said. "Our concern is that we won't."