Daily Management Review

IDC downgrades forecast for global smartphone shipments growth in 2025 to 0.6% from 2.3%


06/02/2025


International Data Corporation (IDC) has revised down its prediction for the growth of global smartphone shipments in 2025 to 0.6%, a decrease from the February estimate of 2.3%.



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IDC's press release indicated that high overall uncertainty, a volatile duty situation, and various macroeconomic challenges were the reasons behind the forecast revision that is affecting consumer spending.

The analysts anticipate that during the forecast period, supply growth will stay within the 1-3% (low single digits) bracket, predicting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% from 2024 to 2029.

The United States and China will continue to uphold their dominance. Exports from China are projected to rise by 3%, supported by demand-driven state subsidies. These actions will keep promoting the sales of Android devices.

Apple's smartphone sales are expected to drop by 1.9% due to the rivalry with Huawei and a broader economic downturn. Furthermore, the majority of Apple’s devices fail to satisfy the requirements that enable purchasers in China to be eligible for subsidies that cap the device cost at 6,000 yuan (roughly $830).

The projection for US shipments in 2025 was revised down to 1.9% from 3.3% "because of heightened uncertainty and price hikes related to tariffs."

source: marketwatch.com