Daily Management Review

IEA: The US is getting ready to become the leader in oil production


02/13/2018


The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the US is preparing to become the world's largest oil producer in 2019. The increase in production at shale deposits compensates for a steady increase in demand for oil and a reduction in supplies by other producers, writes the Financial Times.



Paul Lowry
Paul Lowry
Oil production outside OPEC in January fell by 175 thousand barrels per day (bpd) to 58.6 million bpd, but was 1.3 million bpd higher than in January last year, for production in the US grew by 1.3 million bpd in annual terms.

The production of crude oil in the United States will soon exceed production in Saudi Arabia. The US can outstrip Russia by the end of the year and become a "world leader" in oil production, the IEA's monthly report on the oil market said.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country's oil production could reach 11 million bpd by the end of this year.

The fall in oil prices forced US oil companies to cut costs dramatically and become more efficient. Now that oil prices have recovered, they are drilling more wells and production is growing again.

IEA increased the forecast for growth in world oil demand for 2018 from 1.3 million bpd to 1.4 million bpd. In a stronger global economy, the total oil consumption is expected to be 99.2 million bpd.

However, production growth in non-OPEC countries - headed by the US - will be more than expected this year and will amount to 1.8 million bpd. The total volume of production outside the cartel will reach 59.9 million bpd.

The agency noted that the situation resembles the first wave of the American shale boom, which was caused by higher prices and prompted world producers from OPEC and Russia to continue fighting for market share.

Recall that OPEC and a group of producers outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed on November 30 to extend the agreement to reduce production by the end of 2018.

The volume of production in the OPEC countries in January was basically stable and amounted to 32.16 million bpd. The level of implementation of the agreement on the reduction of production reached 137%, in part because of the decline in Venezuela. The economic crisis paralyzed most of the country's oil-producing capacities.

According to the IEA, the demand for OPEC oil in 2018 will average 32.3 million bpd after a decline to 32 million bpd in the first quarter of the year.

Commercial oil stocks in OECD countries in December decreased by 55.6 million barrels to 2.851 billion barrels. This is the maximum monthly decline in inventories since February 2011, the IEA noted.

In 2017, the total reserves decreased by 154 million barrels, that is, they fell by 420 thousand bpd. By the end of the year, oil reserves were only 52 million barrels higher than the average five-year period, and oil reserves are below this level.
"With such a sharp reduction in excess [of oil], the success of the production agreement may be close, but this is not necessarily so: oil prices stopped growing and turned in the opposite direction. According to our balance of supply and demand, this can also happen with a decline in oil reserves, at least at the beginning of this year, " - the IEA said.

source: ft.com

 






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