Daily Management Review

IMF worsens forecast for global economic recovery in coming years


The IMF has worsened its forecast for the global economy in 2022 and 2023 - GDP growth will slow to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023.

Michael Gaida
Michael Gaida
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published a new forecast for the world economy, the World Economic Outlook, in which it downgraded GDP growth figures. IMF analysts say that due to rising energy and food prices and the impact of events in Ukraine, economic growth will slow to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. After 2023, GDP growth will decline to an average of 3.3% until 2027.

"Compared to our January forecast, we have revised down our global growth forecast to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023," the IMF said in a commentary on the report. The fund's analysts linked the deterioration of the forecast to the direct consequences of the Russian invasion to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia: "a sharp slowdown is forecast in both countries". The 2022 economic growth forecast for the European Union has been revised downwards by 1.1 percentage points (p.p.) due to indirect effects of the same direct effects - the EU will make the second-largest contribution to lower growth.

The new forecast for 2022 and 2023 is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower respectively than projected in January. In 2021 the figure was 6.1%.  The decline in the forecast for developed countries for 2022-2023 was 0.6p to 3.3% and 0.2p to 2.4%, respectively. Growth in 2022 was most considerably lower for the Eurozone with 2.8% instead of 3.9% and for the United Kingdom with 3.7% instead of 4.7%, the US economy was least affected with 3.7% growth instead of 4%. This difference is due to the EU's dependence on energy prices.

source: imf.org