Daily Management Review

Market of autonomous cars will accelerate by 2025


Self-driving cars promise to densely enter into our lives by 2020-2021, predict J'son & Partners Consulting. The sales market for self-driving cars will grow from 330,000 cars in 2017 to 30.4 million cars per year by 2035. The main growth will be observed starting starting from 2025, when large automakers, and especially Chinese ones, will start massively launching autonomous cars of class 3. Until 2020, Tesla's cars will be the dominant brand in the market.

Most foreign automakers and technology companies have already been engaged in developing and field testing of self-driving cars. Many of them announced their intentions precisely for the period 2020-2021.

In the early years, self- driving cars will be available for use in limited conditions and in limited geographic markets, mainly in well-digitized megacities, since capabilities of computer intelligence are still limited by certain conditions.

Regulators in some countries may impede massive use of self-managed cars. We are talking about serious legal barriers that can push back the spread of autonomous driving for up to 2-3 years after the actual availability of technology. In addition, the introduction will restrain a number of technological, legal, information and consumer risks. The main markets for accelerated introduction of autonomous driving will be the United States, China and Europe.

Json & Partners’ specialists conducted an analysis of the current state of the emerging market of self- driving (autonomous) vehicles and built a market outlook for the future in accordance with the scenarios of its development. The forecasts were based on estimates of companies such as JP Morgan, BI Intelligence, Statista, PWC, HIS, BCG, GSMA, Navigant research, Continental AG, McKinsey, Lux Research, P&C, McKinsey and others.

The sales market for self-driving vehicles will grow from 330,000 cars in 2017 to 30.4 million cars per year by 2035. The main growth will start in 2025, when large automakers, and especially Chinese ones, will begin to massively launch stand-alone cars of class 3, where in certain environments the driver can entrust the computer with driving.

Until 2020, Tesla's cars will be the dominant brand in the market. In value terms, annual sales of self- driving cars will grow from $ 13.65 billion in 2017 to $ 364.8 billion by 2035.

In the regional structure, the bulk of self-managed cars will account for sales in China, the US and European countries. By 2035 the share of sales in China can reach up to 33% of all global sales. This can be explained by Chinese authorities’ attempts to encourage using electric vehicles and with a high interest in autonomous technologies among the population. The second market for self-driving cars will be the US with 26% in sales and Europe with 21% of sales will hold the third place.

Autonomous driving will be a serious impact on the economies of cities and countries. This influence will be both positive (for example, traffic congestion and traffic congestion decrease) and negative (reduction of employment in the transportation market, reduction of the tax base, etc.). Some countries with high unemployment (like India) have already announced ban on autonomous driving in order to save jobs in transport.

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