Daily Management Review

Morgan Stanley: There's a little chance Brexit will fail


10/12/2016


UK may still remain part of the EU even despite results of the referendum, say Morgan Stanley economists Jacob Nell and Melanie Baker.



girardatlarge.com
girardatlarge.com
In their view, such a prediction may well come true, in spite of the fact that the United Kingdom and Europe are seriously discussing whether the landing will be "hard" or "soft."

"Hard" Brexit case involves a complete break with the single market and with Europe. The odds are pretty meager, about 10%. However, Morgan Stanley thinks that such a variant would be possible under three conditions. 

1. Early elections or at least to pre-term abdication of the current government until the next election in May 2020

2. The official opposition should speak for staying in the EU.

3. Victory of opposition, which advocates to stay in the EU, with early elections.

" The opposition parties should table a motion of no confidence in the government to hold early elections before May 2020. This is quite likely, given the slim majority which supports the current rate, and the fact that there is a considerable split in the Conservative party." - said the expert.

Now everything goes around the fact that the UK will eventually the EU structure, but this is still yet to happen. Morgan Stanley experts actually say that probability of survival of Great Britain in the EU decreased significantly compared with the previous forecast.

"The opposition is not going to stay in the EU after re-election of Corbin as leader of the Labour Party. In addition, public opinion polls of Labour Party are lagging behind the Conservative Party by 10 points, and it is already reducing likelihood of the opposition victory. There still remains a 66% probability of early elections, 25% of that the opposition would vote to remain part of the EU, 50% of that the opposition would win. This suggests 8.25% chance to vote to stay in the EU. So, the likelihood that the country will remain in the EU is quite low, "- say experts of the bank.

A more likely option of "soft" Brexit is a trend of recent weeks, experts say

"There remains some probability of "soft" Brexit, in which the United Kingdom retains the greater access to the single market. The talks have not yet begun, and the yield is unlikely to take place before the I quarter of 2019", - the analyst concluded.

source: uk.businessinsider.com






Science & Technology

Scientists Discover Largest Ever Under Water Volcanic Eruption Near New Zealand

Bitcoin craze increased load on the power grid to the maximum

PC And Server Performance Slows Down Due To Security Patches For Chip Flaws, Says Microsoft

Cybersecurity Firm Claims Cryptocurrency Monero Might Be Getting Funneled To North Korea University

The Way We Travel Will Be Changed by The Colorless, Odorless Gas - Hydrogen

EU's Big Change In Data Protection Rules Makes Businesses To Get Ready For It

Artificial Intelligence Helps NASA Find An 8th Planet In Orbit Of A Distant Star

Australian Research Success Could Mean Shatterproof Cell Phones Could Soon Be A Realityv

Top ten hi-tech events of the year

Tesla Considering Designing And Developing AI Chips On Its Own To Support Its Auto-Pilot Project

World Politics

World & Politics

Take and go away: new approach to refugees in Europe

Both The Korean Countries Will Come Together In Olympic Talks

Parties of Germany agreed on the migrants problem

Munich Re: Natural disasters caused record damage in 2017

High-Level Talks To Be Held Between North And South Korea In Over Two Years

Sexually Abusing Children Interests An Estimated 20,000 British Men, Shows Police Monitoring Of Chat Sites

2018 Could See An Increase In Terror Attacks Where Both ISIS As Al-Qaeda Continue To Present Threats

What will happen to European populism in 2018?