Daily Management Review

OPEC Raised its Forecast for Demand for its Oil in 2015


The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for demand for its oil this year, as the failure of OPEC to maintain world prices by reducing production begins to affect other manufacturers.

In its monthly report, OPEC raised its forecast of demand for crude oil produced by its members at 80,000 barrels per day to 29.27 million barrels per day. According to the organization, the total world oil demand this year will rise by 1.17 million barrels per day.

OPEC lowered the growth forecast for production in countries outside the cartel to 680,000 barrels per day from 850,000 in the March report. In particular, the growth forecast for production in the US has been reduced to 740,000 to 820,000

According to sources, OPEC’s production in March rose by 1.21 million barrels - up to 31.488 million barrels of oil a day in the first quarter figure was 30.8 million barrels per day, reported in the April report of the organization.

Thus, OPEC continues to exceed its own statements of production quotas, which is 30 million barrels per day.

Oil rose mainly in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the report said. OPEC oil production without taking into account data on Iraq in March amounted to 28.14 million barrels per day, down 658,000 barrels a day more than the previous month.

Since the beginning of last summer, oil prices have fallen by half - from 100 to 50 dollars per barrel mark Brent. OPEC's decision of 27 November to maintain oil production quota at 30 million barrels per day increased the price collapse. Earlier this year, the quotes slipped to around $ 45 per barrel. Analysts attributed the sharp decline in the value of "black gold" with an excess of raw materials in the market.

However, in late January - early February, oil prices began to grow - to a level of $ 60 per barrel Brent. This Thursday, the price of Brent has updated a maximum of the current year, reaching 63.32 dollars.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said earlier that OPEC should reduce its daily oil production by at least 5%, or 1.5 million barrels

 Decline in oil prices has led to deterioration of the situation for some not so rich countries, OPEC, including Iran. However, the main oil exporter Saudi Arabia to defend their market share, has become a major apologist policy of not reducing production, which now stands at 30 million barrels a day.

"We believe that this volume should be reduced by at least 5%," - said Zangane.

"I think they are wrong - those who hold on to market share and reduce revenues by half. I'd rather be lowered production by 10.5% and increased its revenues by 100% - twice," - he said during a press conference in the Omani capital.

Oman - the largest oil and gas producer in the Middle East that is not a member of OPEC. As reported by Bloomberg, previously expressed similar concerns in OPEC representative of Libya Samir Kamal.

Oman's oil minister Mohammed Ahmed al-Rumhi reckons that OPEC makes a mistake while trying to maintain a share of the oil market in terms of global overproduction, rather than cut production to support prices.

US Department of Energy expects oil production from unconventional sources in May, will be reduced by 57 th. Barrels per day. Thus, the decline is expected for the first time since 2013, when these forecasts were initiated. In addition, a positive impact on the market has a skepticism about the imminent signing of an agreement with Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions.

source: reuters.com