Daily Management Review

OPEC forecasts timing of decline in global oil demand


Global oil demand will start to decline after 2035, OPEC expects. Long-term oil demand growth will be limited by the growing number of electric vehicles.

Ken Hodge
Ken Hodge
Average annual growth in oil demand will slow significantly between 2030 and 2035, after which it will begin to decline, according to OPEC's long-term World Oil Outlook to 2045.  

OPEC expects global oil demand to plateau in the second half of the forecast period, but notes that oil's share of global fuel consumption will remain the largest until 2045.

"Long-term oil demand will increase from 82.5M bpd in 2020 to 99M bpd in 2045. Despite a slowdown in oil demand growth in the second half of the period and a significant increase in the share of other energy sources, OPEC expects oil to maintain its highest share in the global energy mix over the period," the organisation said in its report. 

In 2020, oil accounted for 30% of global energy consumption, by 2025 its share will exceed 31%, after which it will begin to decline, the organisation of oil-exporting countries expects. It predicts that by 2045 the share of oil will be 28%.

OPEC forecasts that oil demand will reach 104.4m bpd by 2026. The organisation estimates global oil demand growth of 13.8 million bpd in the medium term (2020-2026), but notes that almost 80% of the rising demand will be in 2021-2023, due to recovery from the coronavirus crisis. Overall, global oil demand will increase by 17.6M bpd, from 90.6M bpd in 2020 to 108.2M bpd in 2045, OPEC points out.

source: reuters.com