Daily Management Review

Saxo Bank: £ 1 will cost $ 1 and IMF will stop measuring GDP in 2019


On Tuesday, December 4, experts and analysts of the Danish Saxo Bank Group presented their traditional “shocking predictions” - unlikely, but nevertheless not entirely impossible events that could have serious consequences for the whole world. Experts warned that although this is not the official Saxo market forecast, many investors may be mistaken in assessing likelihood of these events to occur as negligible. “We have been publishing“shocking predictions ”for more than ten years now and we believe that the current list is not only shocking, but also intriguing, encouraging investors to think more widely than usual,” said Saxo Bank’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen.

In the early parliamentary elections in the UK, the opposition Labor Party wins a convincing victory, and its leader Jeremy Corbin forms the new government, relying on the overwhelming majority in the House of Commons.

Having received a mandate for the most daring reforms, Prime Minister Corbin, in the best traditions of European socialists, begins to implement a scorched-earth policy aimed at eradicating striking inequality in society.
Utilities, energy companies and railways are nationalized again. The government introduces the first in the history of the country progressive real estate tax, and the Bank of England demands to support financing of a new “national quantitative easing,” or unconditional basic income. An abrupt increase in inflation begins, investments decline, and wealthy foreigners flee the country with their capitals. All this leads to the parity of the British and American currencies. £ 1 will cost $ 1.

Germany, the former world economic leader, is having problems. The reasons for them are difficulties in development of new technologies that existed long ago, but remained unnoticed until recently. The pearl of the country's economy, the automobile industry that accounts for 14% of GDP, ceases to live up to expectations. Instead of 100 million cars that will be sold in 2018, only 81 million will be sold in 2019, which is only 2% more than in 2017. Accordingly, the annual growth rates are lower than those recorded since the 2000s - 5–10%.

By 2040, 55% of sales of new cars worldwide and 33% of the fleet will be electric cars. But, according to Saxo Bank, Germany is just beginning to move to electric vehicles, and tightening of US duties will not improve the position of German exports or supply chains. As a result, an economic recession will begin in Germany in the third quarter of 2019.

When Elon Musk tweeted that he could buy Tesla shares for $ 420 apiece, he hardly imagined that Saxo Bank would “offer” them to Apple for $ 520.

According to analysts of the bank, Apple understands that if it wants to increase impact on lives of its users, then cars should be the next frontier as digital technologies increasingly penetrate the automotive industry. Recognizing that Tesla needs more financial strength, and the Apple ecosystem must penetrate the automotive field deeper than the current Apple CarPlay software allows, Apple is beginning to put pressure on Tesla. It provides financing for the deal at 40% above par, at $ 520 per share, and acquires the company at a price that is $ 100 per share higher than was indicated in Elon Musk’s erroneous tweet.

However, analysts at Saxo Bank this year decided not to limit themselves to shocking forecasts only of a regional or corporate nature. Several predictions are quite global.

It is not excluded that at the spring meeting of the management of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, their chief economists unexpectedly announce their intention to stop measuring GDP.
They will argue that GDP does not reflect the real impact on the economy of low-cost high-tech services and environmental problems, as evidenced by the horrific impact of pollution on human health and the environment in India and many other countries around the world. Undoubtedly, productivity is one of the most popular, but at the same time least studied economic concepts. If a country seeks to improve well-being and health of its citizens, it needs to increase productivity. This unprecedented decision by the IMF and the World Bank also symbolizes a departure from the dominance system of central banks, associated with a decline in productivity around the world after the global financial crisis.

source: home.saxo