Daily Management Review

Trade tariffs start affecting global trade


11/30/2018


The total exports of the G20 countries grew by only 0.3% in the third quarter of 2018, and imports - by 0.7%, according to OECD data. In the second quarter, there was a decrease in the indicator by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, in the first quarter - an increase by 5.5% and 5.1%.



Debs
Debs
With the exception of major exporters of oil (including Russia and Saudi Arabia), turnover for the quarter remained almost unchanged in monetary terms. This is evidence of the termination of the biennium of accelerating the growth of global trade amid rising tariffs. Recall that in September, 10% of US duties on imports of Chinese goods “worth” about $ 200 billion came into force. In turn, China announced introduction of duties for $ 60 billion, bringing the total volume of supplies that are subject to restrictions to $ 360 billion.

In the United States, after six quarters of growth in July — September 2018, exports fell by 1.7% (to $ 420 billion), imports grew by 2.6% (to $ 643.7 billion). In China, export supplies returned to growth - by 2.4%, to $ 634.3 billion (in the second quarter there was a decline of 4.9%). This increase, however, could be explained by a large transaction for the sale of the Brazilian oil platform (import of the buying country increased by 18% this quarter). Chinese imports increased by 4.1% to $ 565.1 billion. Just as in other countries — major importers of energy resources (in particular, in India and Indonesia), the growth rate is largely due to the increase in oil prices.

Exports for the second quarter in a row declined in the EU countries (by 0.8%), as well as in Australia, Japan (by 2% in both cases) and major developing countries: in South Africa - by 0.8%, in Turkey - by 0.6%, in India - 0.3%. Imports fell the most in Turkey (by 14.1% against the background of a sharp weakening of the lira), and Argentina also experienced a significant decline (by 8%, for a similar reason). Supplies to the European Union decreased by 0.5%, to Australia - by 5.2%, to Canada - by 1.4%, to South Korea - by 0.9%.

In Saudi Arabia, export growth continued in the third quarter (5.3%, although its pace slowed down) and imports fell again (minus 10.6%). In Russia, export volumes in monetary terms increased by 5.3% to $ 114.7 billion (3.6% in April-June), imports decreased by 5.2% to $ 60.3 billion (minus 2.5%) in the second quarter).

source: oecd.org






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