Daily Management Review

WTO improves global trade forecast


The World Trade Organisation (WTO) expects global trade growth of 10.8% this year and 4.7% in 2022, the organisation said in its forecast. At that, in March, the WTO predicted growth of 8% in 2021 and slowing to 4% in 2022.

The WTO explains that growth should slow down next year as merchandise trade approaches its pre-pandemic long-term trend. 

Supply-side problems, such as semiconductor shortages and port delays, are expected to have a negative impact on trade in certain areas, but are unlikely to have a major impact on global performance. The greatest risks of negative impacts on trade come from the coronavirus pandemic, the report reads.

Trade growth would be accompanied by GDP growth of 5.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022 (revised down from 5.1% and 3.8% in the March forecast), the WTO said. "GDP growth has been driven by strong support for monetary and fiscal policy, as well as renewed economic activity in countries that have been able to introduce COVID-19 vaccines on a large scale," the organisation explains.

source: wto.org