Daily Management Review

What Brexit has already done


Irish low-budget airline Ryanair has arranged sale of tickets to Europe, linked to the outcome of the referendum in the UK.

The sale will be held during the day. Ryanair has released 1 million extremely cheap tickets, marketing them under "Need to escape?" slogan.

The advertising depicts three monkeys with faces of Brexit supporters - Leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage, former mayor of London Boris Johnson, and British Minister of Justice Michael Gove. The picture’s caption reads: "Hear no Europe, see no Europe, speak no Europe."

On Friday morning, before the referendum results were announced, Ryanair, counting on the fact that the British would vote against Brexit, announced sale of tickets to honor Britain's membership in the EU.

This obviously ironic action is not the only consequence of today's morning news from the UK. Despite the fact that there hasn’t even been twenty-four hours since the referendum ended, the markets, governments and ordinary citizens all over Europe have already violently reacted to the news.


Bond prices of major European banks collapsed at the opening of trading, including Deutsche Bank AG, Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays Plc.

Aggregate bank index fell by 6.7% at the opening of the stock exchange in London. The largest decline experienced Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Bank of Ireland. Bonds of Deutsche Bank fell by 18%, and Credit Suisse’s – by 14%.

Financial markets are unbalanced and skewed. Financial analysts in London believe that Brexit will result in the outflow of labor from the UK labor market. The same opinion is supported in Deutsche Bank and HSBC.

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union will trigger three waves of volatility in the markets. The consequences will be felt for weeks or even months, says Christian Gattiker, a chief strategist at Swiss bank Julius Baer.
"Results of the referendum in the UK caught investors by surprise. The Friday will be a "landslide," because everyone will be trying to hedge risks. This will be followed by the risk of a chain reaction, and a reaction to the political statements "- says Gattiker in a research note, published on Friday, June 24th.

The market reaction to Brexit is undulating, Gattiker is sure. The first wave, he said, has already begun. It is expressed in an active hedging of risks, especially in the field of foreign exchange transactions. It is falling on Friday’s auctions, and will probably grab some trading days next week.

The second wave, according to Gattiker, will be linked to a chain reaction. The markets will try to find an answer to the questions whether the UK’s exit from the EU will become the union’s end. "We can see it from changes in spreads of yield bonds of peripheral European countries in the coming days. If they grow up, the market is preparing for the collapse of the European Union", - the expert explains.

Finally, the third wave will reflect a reaction beyond the initial comments of European politicians and mitigation interventions of central banks, and will continue for weeks or even months, says Gattiker.


Drop in prices continued as the counting of votes after the referendum progressed.

The cost of a Brent barrel started to decline sharply after the first official results from the north of England, where Brexit supporters recorded the victory. After that, there was a small correction. However, when inevitability of Brexit became apparent, the fall accelerated and cost of a barrel fell below 49 dollars.

The price sunk below $ 48 the main British TV channels - the BBC and Sky - predicted the victory of Brexit supporters with the result of 52%. 

Texas WTI also fell more by 6.6%.

The fall of oil prices occurred in parallel with the pound sterling’s collapse, which fell to its lowest rates since 1985.


European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker does not agree with the fact the UK’s exit from the European Union could be "beginning of the end" for the unit, according to Reuters.

"No," - Juncker replied laconically to a question of a journalist. The agency notes that his words were met with applause, after which he left the press conference, answering only two questions, and read a statement from EU leaders, which had previously been published on the European Council website.

Joint statement of Juncker, Head of the European Council Donald Tusk, President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz and Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte is calling on the British government not to postpone the procedure of withdrawal from the EU, since any delay would "unnecessarily prolong the uncertainty."

The statement notes that the EU reacted to the referendum’s results "with regret, but respect." "This is an unprecedented situation but we are united in our response. Union of 27 Member States will continue to work. The EU is our common political future", - the document says.

An emergency session of the European Parliament on the release of the UK unit will be held on June 28.


Big business hopes to adapt to changing situations, and believes that even Brexit cannot change the UK’s attractiveness to investors
The victory of eurosceptics marks the beginning of "period of uncertainty" that could drag on for several years, told representatives of major European businesses polled by Reuters. 

"This decision will create huge uncertainty which will slow economic activity and decision-making" - warns Head of British communications holding WPP Martin Sorrell.

In turn, Head of German mechanical engineering association VDMA Thilo Brodtmann said that Brexit could undermine investor confidence in Europe as a whole. However, according to Head of the German Industrial Federation Markus Kerber, trade with Britain will be in recession in the next few months, which will affect a number of industries - from automotive and energy to the financial sector.

At the same time, the financiers hope to survive Brexit unscathed. In particular, Head of Goldman Sachs Lloyd Blankfein said that during many years of existence, his company has learned to adapt to change. French group Societe Generale and Unicredit Italian bank believe that London will retain the status of an international financial center in any case.

"There won’t be mass exodus of banks and other financial institutions. However, the government should make efforts to keep Britain's access to the single market ", - said a representative of the City of London Corporation, which hosts headquarters of dozens of the world’s banks and insurance companies.

Owners of British Airways acknowledged that they expect decline in revenues this year. Yet, they also expressed confidence that Brexit will not have a long-term negative impact on their business. Norwegian Air assured that development of operations in the UK market will remain one of the priorities of the company.

Citizens of the UK

The British want to vote on the question of Britain's membership in the EU once again, this time in accordance with the EU regulations on holding a referendum. The petition has already been signed by more than 70 thousand people.

The document was published on the morning of June 24, and immediately reached the minimum level of votes. At the moment, the petition seeks a figure of 100 thousand signatures. If this result is achieved, then the document will be discussed at the state parliament.

The main requirement is to hold a popular vote not according to the British law, but by the laws of the European Union. In this case, the decision on the country's exit from the EU structure will be made if the turnout is at least 75%, and if not less than 60% of people vote for one of the options.