Daily Management Review

White House Will Not Release Economic Projections This Summer: Reports


White House Will Not Release Economic Projections This Summer: Reports
According to news reports published in the United States, updated economic projections this summer will not be released by the White House officials this year which denotes a break from precedent.
Critics have been estimating that the US economy is set to be pushed into a deep recession because of the economic impact of the novel copronavirus pandemic.
The decision had been made because "the novel coronavirus is causing extreme volatility in the U.S. economy, making it difficult to model economic trends", claimed a report published by The Washington Post on Thursday citing three people with knowledge of the decision.
According to the Post, every February, a federal budget proposal is conventionally unveiled by the White House every year which then provides a "mid-session review" in July or August that focuses on the updated projections on economic trends such as unemployment, inflation and economic growth.
"Given the unprecedented state of play in the economy at the moment, the data is also extremely fluid and would produce a less instructive forecast," a senior administration official was quoted by the Post as saying. The source reportedly added that it would be "foolish" to publish forecasting data when it "may mislead the public."
According to The Hill, a U.S. political website, the move by the White House, as reported in the media, has been criticized by former White House and federal government economists. Such critics have suggested a lack of intent on the part of the White House economic team about committing to any predictions about the future condition of the US economy as it could undermine President Donald Trump's re-election chances.
"This is disgraceful by the White House," tweeted Aaron Sojourner, a former senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
"I do wonder if they're not releasing completely-dishonest numbers because: a) staff refuse to produce them, or b) an empty intersection between what would be politically acceptable to them & what would not destroy any credibility," he said.
According to revised data from the Commerce Department released Thursday, there was a contraction of the US economy by an annual rate of 5 per cent in the first quarter. But analysts say that the figure does not completely capture the economy damage cause to the US economy because of the coronavirus pandemic.
"This report, however, is only a taste of what to expect in Q2, when we forecast GDP (gross domestic product) to nosedive at an annualized rate of 25 percent," Jay H. Bryson, acting chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis.
Optimism has been expressed about a rebound of the US economy in the second half of the year by While White House officials. However warnings have been issued by economists and public health experts that a hasty reopening of the economy could trigger a second wave of infections, which could reverse the economic recovery.