Daily Management Review

Analysts: Oil exporting countries are counting losses


Exports of the G20 countries in January – March 2020, when quarantine restrictions were just beginning to apply in most countries, has already decreased by 4.3% compared to the previous quarter, OECD data show. World trade in general, according to Euler Hermes estimates, dipped 2.5% in the first quarter, and this is the worst decline since 2009. Experts expect that in absolute terms, China, the USA and Germany will lose the most from the fall in exports this year.

Jasper Morse via flickr
Jasper Morse via flickr
In the first quarter of 2020, exports of the G20 countries decreased by 4.3%, imports - by 3.9% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019 (data cleared from seasonality are used), the OECD reports. They indicate that preliminary April data, which will be included in the second quarter, indicate an even more serious decline. In particular, South Korean exports fell by 21.5%, Japan by 10.6% compared with March.

The degree of impact of restrictive measures on trade in the first quarter was highly dependent on the speed and scale of their implementation.

In France, Italy and the UK, the countries where the quarantine began to operate in March, a decline in exports was recorded at 7.1%, 4.9% and 7.8%, imports - at 7%, 5.6% and 6.5 % respectively. For comparison, supplies from Germany fell in March only by 3.5%, imports fell by 2.4%. In the United States, where the quarantine was introduced quite late, exports in the first quarter fell by only 1.9%, imports - by 2.8%.

In China, which became the first pandemic country, the main decline in business activity occurred just in the first quarter. In January-March, China's exports fell by 9.3%, imports - by 7%. In India, the export of goods and services decreased by 9.2%, while the import - only 2.3%. In Brazil, where restrictions were not yet in place in the first quarter and the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak was minimal, there was even trade growth - by 0.9% for exports and 2.8% for imports.

In Russia and Saudi Arabia, by contrast, due to a sharp drop in energy prices, exports in the first three months of the year decreased by 9.9% and 10.2%, respectively, imports - by 4.3% and 5.9%.

According to experts of the Euler Hermes insurance company (part of the Allianz group), global trade as a whole fell by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in January-March 2020 - and this is the worst decline since 2009. It follows from the trade dynamics index calculated by the company that in April 2020 by April 2019, the decline could be 13%, so the decrease in volumes for the second quarter is likely to be even deeper.

source: reuters.com