Daily Management Review

Conference Board Predicts 3 Percent Global GDP Growth In 2018 And Continued Momentum From 2017


11/15/2017




Conference Board Predicts 3 Percent Global GDP Growth In 2018 And Continued Momentum From 2017
In the latest Global Economic Outlook 2018, the Conference Board estimated that through 2018, a growth rate of 3 percent would be clocked by the global economy after the growth surpassed the expectations in 2017.
 
"Global growth has finally left the starting gate since the global economic and financial crisis," said Bart van Ark, chief economist of the Conference Board. "GDP growth, which we predicted to grow at 2.8 percent a year ago, is likely to end at about 3 percent for 2017, and through 2018."
 
Growth in China because of its policy-driven growth stimulus, cyclical recovery in Europe, enhancement of business confidence based on expectations of fiscal stimulus and reforms in taxes by the Trump administration and the stabilization of energy and commodities prices are among some of the unique global and regional events that have driven the growth uptick in 2017.
 
Divers and forces that have the potential of enhancing the growth quality and making it sustainable through the next decade shave also been identified by the report. 
 
"The good news is that a larger role for qualitative growth factors-an improvement in labor force skills, digitization, and especially stronger productivity growth-may help sustain growth and provide better conditions for businesses to thrive over the next decade," added van Ark.
 
Specifically in sectors where there is a high demand for illusive talent, faster investment growth can be induced by labor shortages. In mature economies such as the United States and Europe, there is expected to be labor productivity growth due to the increased capital intensity.
 
A higher concentration of digital assets and services and more investment in machinery and equipment would result enhancements in the "quality" of capital which would in turn result in sustainability of the growth.
 
According to the report, in comparison to the growth average of 1.8 percent in the last five years, mature economies are expected to grow at a decent pace though 2018 as the momentum in such economies has increased during 2017.
 
In comparison to 2.2 percent in 2017, it is projected that the mature economies would grow by 2.1 percent in 2018. Stronger investment growth would be carried through from 2017 to 2018 by the U.S. economy and hence it would especially benefit.
 
With specific reference to labor force growth and investment, qualitative growth source would see strong contributions in the emerging economies and they have substantial scope for "catch up" on growth, according to the report.
 
With some significant differences between countries, and compared to a growth rate of 3.7 percent in 2017, the growth in emerging market is projected to be around 3.8 percent as they will continue to gain some strength in 2018.
 
There is limited scope for faster growth in the mature markets despite the predictions of solid growth in the short term. However, the report also predicts a possibility of a growth slowdown in later years of the decade.

but big risks to the global economy is posed by long-term economic trends and structural changes, warned the research group.
 
(Source:www.xinhuanet.com) 






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