Daily Management Review

IMF forecasts global economic slowdown


The International Monetary Fund has revised down the growth expectations for the global economy: the forecast for 2022 has been lowered to 4.4% from the previous 4.9%; in contrast, the 2023 forecast has been improved to 3.8% from 3.6%; global GDP growth in 2021 is provisionally estimated at 5.9%, the IMF said in a January report.

Experts of the Fund forecast slowdown of global growth associated with deteriorating conditions of the two leading economies of the world - the U.S. and China: the U.S. economic growth forecast in 2022 was immediately revised down to 4% from October's 5.2% due to lack of progress in the Congress of the multi-billion dollar investment project in the social sphere and the environment Build Back Better, and tightening of monetary policy and failures in the consumption chain. 

And China's GDP growth forecast for this year has been lowered to 4.8% from 5.6% due to financial problems of local construction companies and possible economic consequences of the "zero tolerance" policy for the coronavirus outbreaks.

The IMF notes that the projections are based on the assumption that the global epidemic situation will improve by the end of 2022, the percentage of vaccinated people worldwide will increase and coronavirus treatments will become more effective.

The IMF has also improved its forecast for the average price of oil in 2022 by $12.8, or 16.5%, to $77.31 per barrel.

source: imf.org