Daily Management Review

JP Morgan: There is 15% chance of recession in USA in the first half of 2023


According to JP Morgan analysts, there is a 15% chance that the United States will experience a recession in the first half of 2023.

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In the first half of this year, the US recession risk dropped from 20% to 15%, according to JP Morgan. Out of four potential scenarios, it is currently the least likely forecast, the analysts say.

According to the "soft landing" scenario, there is a 25% chance that the US will be able to avoid a recession. The likelihood that the American economy will slip into a recession by the end of 2023 is estimated at 26%. The analysts believe that this would result from the US Federal Reserve System's interest rate gradually rising.

Another scenario holds that continued growth and high inflation will force the Fed and central banks in Western Europe to raise rates further, eventually leading to a deeper and more global recession. Its probability stands at 34%.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs analysts pegged the likelihood of a US recession starting in 2023 at 30% in the summer of 2022. When a recession does begin, it will most likely be mild and "without major economic imbalances," the bank noted.

source: jpmorgan.com