Daily Management Review

Study Finds US-China Trade War Resulted In Loss Of 245,000 Jobs At Its Peak


Study Finds US-China Trade War Resulted In Loss Of 245,000 Jobs At Its Peak
According to a recent study commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC), a peak loss of 245,000 jobs in the United States was the result of the trade war with China that was initiated by the US President Donald Trump. However the report also predicted that an additional 145,000 jobs would be created by the boost to growth resulting from a gradual scaling back of tariffs by both the warring trading partners by 2025.
The gross domestic product the US could shrink by as much as $1.6 trillion over the next five years under an “escalation scenario” which is related to a significant decoupling of the two biggest economies of the world according to the study by Oxford Economics, said the group in the report. The trade and business group USCBC represents major US companies doing business in China. The slowdown in the GDP could result in a loss of about 732,000 jobs in 2022 and 320,000 jobs by 2025in the US, the USCBC report estimated, under the “escalation scenario”.
The report was released a time when the US President-elect Joe Biden is set to take over as the president of the country in just a few days and expected to undertake a major review and analysis of the trade policy of the US government which would include holding consultations with democratic allies in relation to the punitive tariffs imposed on them by the Trump administration earlier. While making it clear that he will not make any immediate changes to the tariffs imposed by Trump, Biden however said that he will partner with US allies to put more pressure on China to bring in changes to its trade policies and behaviour. 
It was important for the group to clearly states the potential consequences of the policy choices made by the US under the Trump administration in the US-China relationship, said USCBC President Craig Allen, who is known to have publicly supported the efforts of Trump to change the trade and technology transfer policies that were followed by China.
“In the case of the tariffs, it’s very important that we understand the full economic cost of these choices,” Allen told a press briefing.
While about $105bn had been invested in China in 2019 by companies from the US, about 1.2 million jobs in the US is supported by the exports of the US to China and about 197,000 Americans are employed by Chinese multinational companies, the study estimated.
“With China forecast to drive around one-third of global growth over the next decade, maintaining market access to China is increasingly essential for U.S. businesses’ global success,” the study said.