Daily Management Review

USA notes growth in industry in October


US industrial production returned to growth in October with a 1.1 per cent increase (0.4 per cent decrease in September), as a result of which the index virtually compensated for the record-breaking drop in February and April (minus 16.5 per cent).

At that, output in October was still 5.6% lower than in February and 5.3% lower than a year ago, according to Fed data. Following an increase of just 0.1% in September, output in industry rose by 1% in October (month-to-month), growth in the public sector was 3.9%, and production fell again by 0.6% (minus 14.4% from a year ago). Retail sales in October rose by 0.3% to September (an expected increase of 0.5%), while the estimate for September was revised from 1.9% to 1.6%.

"Business activity was good in October, but there are worrying signs of a possible slowdown in November and December amid a high number of new infections and lower consumer activity," ING Bank said. As for the slowing down of retail sales, the bank believes that the two-month statistics should be regarded as a single indicator due to seasonal characteristics. In particular, online retailing has grown by 3.1% over this time, while traditional retailing has seen a decline in demand, according to Google's data on movements near shopping centres. Capital Economics expects the growth of industrial production to continue in the coming months, even if consumption falls. Given the new restrictions, the risk of this is high, the centre noted.

The leading indicator of business activity - the ISM Index in industry - rose to 59.3 points in October compared to 55.4 points in September. This is a record since September 2018. In the services sector, its value in October fell to 56.6 points from 57.8 points, but the indicator above 50 points indicates an increase in business activity. However, restrictions did slow down the recovery in employment - 365,000 jobs were created in October compared to 753,000 in September). In the third quarter, the American economy grew by 33.1% year-on-year (i.e. this would have been the rate of growth if this had been the case throughout the year) after a 31.4% fall in the second quarter. In annual terms, the economy grew by 7.4% after a 9.1% decline in the second quarter.

source: capitaleconomics.com