Daily Management Review

WTO expects global GDP growth to slow to 2.8% in 2026 in its baseline scenario


03/20/2026


The World Trade Organization (WTO) anticipates that global goods trade growth will decelerate to 1.9% in 2026, a decrease from 4.6% the year before, provided the economic effects of the Middle East conflict remain restricted.



WTO/Jay Louvion
WTO/Jay Louvion
The baseline scenario likewise projects a 2.6% rise in trade turnover for next year, based on the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics.

At the same time, services trade is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2026 and by 5.1% in 2027. Services trade increased by 5.3% last year.

Overall trade in goods and services is anticipated to rise by 4.7% in 2025, while worldwide GDP is predicted to expand by 2.9%. This year, the WTO anticipates growth of 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively. The organization forecasts that the world economy will expand by 2.8% in 2027.

In October of the previous year, the organization forecasted that global merchandise trade would increase by 0.5% in 2026, services by 4.4%, and global GDP by 2.6%. Consequently, the WTO's updated baseline scenario has turned increasingly optimistic.

Nevertheless, the report states that if oil and gas prices stay high this year because of the Middle East conflict, global merchandise trade will increase by just 1.4%, services by 4.1%, and global GDP by 2.5%.

source: wto.org