Daily Management Review

IMF warns of "global but asymmetric" shock from Middle East conflict


03/31/2026


Economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warn that the US-Israeli military effort against Iran poses a "global but asymmetric" shock, complicating the prospects for faltering economies.



Marek Ślusarczyk
Marek Ślusarczyk
Asian and African nations reliant on imported oil are increasingly struggling to obtain supplies, even at elevated prices, as noted in an IMF blog post.

"Every path results in increased prices and reduced economic growth," the IMF economists highlight.

They think the extent of harm to supply chains and infrastructure hinges on the duration of the conflict, whether it is long-lasting or brief, suggesting "the outcome might land in a middle ground—where tensions continue, energy costs stay elevated, and combating inflation remains challenging—amid ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risks."

Additionally, increasing food and fertilizer costs are impacting several nations in the Middle East and Latin America, among other regions, and low-income economies face a threat of food insecurity, as reported by the IMF.

Peoples in low-income nations are at the greatest risk from increasing food prices, as they spend roughly 36% of their food expenses on average, while the figure is 26% in emerging markets and 9% in developed markets, according to economists from the IMF.

source: imf.org